The primary energy supply for the IESS BAU scenario 24500 TWh and WEPS Base

The primary energy supply for the iess bau scenario

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Figure 28 gives the comparison of primary energy supply derived from IESS and WEPS+ models. The primary energy supply for the IESS BAU scenario (24500 TWh) and WEPS+ Base case (24864 TWh) in 2040 are quite similar, but the energy supply in the IESS High gas scenario in 2040 (22821 TWh) is lower than the other two because it considers higher energy efficiency that reduces specific energy consumption per unit of service rendered on the demand side. 14 The baseline number for IESS and WEPS+ for 2012 can vary minutely as the former considers the numbers financial year wise and the latter considers the numbers calendar year wise. For the comparison exercise, only WEPS+ Base case is considered because 6 scenarios were created in the WEPS modelling exercise and comparing 6 scenarios with 2 scenarios of IESS would make the picture very complicated. Figure 29 9916 (40%) 12157 (50%) 11162 (49%) 6688 (27%) 6950 (28%) 4979 (22%) 2457 (10%) 1906 (8%) 2584 (11%) 5030 (20%) 1668 (7%) 1792 (8%) 1351 (6%) 1626 (7%) 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 WEPS+ Base case IESS BAU scenario IESS High Gas scenario Primary Energy Supply (TWh) & Energy Mix - 2040 Coal Liquids Natural Gas Renewables and Hydro Nuclear Agriculture/waste the end results, a comparison for the two studies is given below in case the user still wants to compare the results from the two different models. 10.1. Comparison of Primary Energy Supply: Figure 28 56
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Figure 29 gives the comparison of primary energy supply for WEPS+ and IESS along with the energy mix. As evident from the above figure, coal remains a dominant source of fuel for India even in 2040 as its share in energy mix is envisaged to be 40% in WEPS and 49%-50% in the IESS model. The absolute consumption of natural gas certainly rises from the present 510 TWh to 2457 TWh in WEPS+ and 1906 in IESS BAU scenario and 2584 TWh in IESS High Gas scenar- io in 2040, however, the share of gas in energy mix hovers in the range of 8%-11% in the two studies, whereas the share was 6.5% in 2015. The share of renewables in energy mix comes out to be 20% in the WEPS+ model, whereas it is 7%-8% in the IESS in 2040. This is so because WEPS+ envisages that renewables would displace a large amount of coal being consumed in industry sector, whereas IESS does consider displacement of solid and liquid fuels in different demand sectors like industry but not as high as WEPS. The share of nuclear and liquid fuels in energy mix is quite close in both WEPS and IESS. 15 Agriculture/waste is solid biomass (non-commercial) used primarily for cooking in India. WEPS model does not include non-commercial (agriculture/waste) energy supply. 10.3. Comparison of Energy Intensity: Figure 30 gives a comparison of energy intensity for the IESS and WEPS+ modeling exercise. The reduction in energy intensity in the IESS BAU scenario and WEPS+ Base case is 68% and 69% from 2012-40 respectively which is quite close. Since, the IESS High Gas scenario is more efficient, the reduction in energy intensity is 71% from 2012-40. Therefore, this means that in the IESS BAU scenario and WEPS+ Base case scenario, same amount of energy would be required to achieve a per unit increase in GDP, whereas the energy required would be lesser in IESS High Gas scenario due to various efficiency measures employed in the latter scenario.
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