Here is a fairly typical news report of the monthly

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Understanding Statistics in the Behavioral Sciences
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Chapter 8 / Exercise 3
Understanding Statistics in the Behavioral Sciences
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: Here is a fairly typical news report of the monthly Gallup poll of the fortunes of the three major political parties in Canada—the Liberals, the Conservatives (or Tories), and the New Democratic Party. (Gallup is a long-established commercial polling company.) It appeared in Canadian newspapers in February 1984. Liberals cut Tories’ lead in Gallup poll Montreal (CP) –A Gallup poll published today indicates the federal Liberals have cut into the Progressive Conservatives’ lead in voter support, but not as much as Liberal party polls made public last month had suggested. The Gallup poll, conducted in early January, indicates the Conservatives have a 20-percentage-point lead over the Liberals, down from 23 percentage points in December. Fifty-two per cent of decided respondents questioned in January supported the Tories, a drop of one percentage point from the previous month, while the Liberals gained two percentage points to 32 per cent. The new Democratic Party had the support of 15 per cent, unchanged from December. Gallup says its poll is accurate to within four percentage points either way 19 times out of 20, meaning the apparent changes may be illusory. The margin of error means, statistically, that voter support for the Conservatives could have been as high as 56 per cent or as low as 48 per cent, while the Liberals could have had the support of as many as 36 per cent of voters or as little as 28 per cent. Twenty-one per cent of the 1,046 respondents were undecided or refused to state a choice, down from 27 per cent in December.
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Understanding Statistics in the Behavioral Sciences
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Chapter 8 / Exercise 3
Understanding Statistics in the Behavioral Sciences
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Govier: A Practical Study of Logic 12 Chapter 9: Inductive Generalizations 2. Background : The following Reuters News Service report appeared in November 1987—at a time when the Soviet Union was involved in a war in Afghanistan and before it had announced or begun its withdrawal from that country. Poll in Moscow shows majority favor pullout from Afghanistan Reuter PARIS—A Western-style opinion poll conducted in Moscow shows that the majority of Soviet citizens favor pulling troops out of Afghanistan and issuing visas to people who want to emigrate, the French magazine Le Point said yesterday. The survey of 1.000 Moscow-area residents between 18 and 65 was conducted by the Soviet Institute of Sociological Studies and sponsored by Le Point, Radio France- Inter, the French television channel TFI and the French polling organization IPSOS. It showed 53 per cent favored a “total withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan” against 27 per cent opposed. The respondents also approved of “Issuing exit visas to Soviet citizens and their families who wish to leave the USSR for good” by 73 per cent to 18 per cent. The poll turned up majorities of between 79 and 83 per cent in favor of multiple candidates in local elections, self-employment, workers’ selection of management and curbs on the sale of liquor. Respondents were selected at random and interviewed by telephone Oct. 1-12, Le Point said. The percentage of “won’t say” answers varied between six and 31—with the high

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