but both the sources are in accordance with the fact that number of aircraft at Deer Valley Terminal has been increasing, however, at a moderate rate. The peak occurs before the recession and fuel spike. Then it is followed by a decline. The historical aircraft operations data at the terminal from past 23 years is taken into consideration. It can be seen that there was a decline in operations at early 1990s. There was then a rapid increase over the next decade. This remained at a peak during the years 2002 – 2009. The maxima was observed in 2006, with a value 406,507. We can then see a decline in
the operations. This was due to the recession. Recovery can be seen since the year 2011. However, still the values which were before the recession could not be achieved. From the different categories, the general aviation operations are seen increasing over long term. The military activity is however declining. However, we cannot se any visible trend in commercial air activities, that is, air carrier and air taxi. ANNUAL OPERATIONS, APDM, PEAK HOUR FORECASTS We can see in the table the forecast of operations based on usage category. This seems to be consistent with the categories used by FAA. The main commercial operations are air carrier and air taxi. Under air carrier operations, there are intermittent large aircrafts, which arrive at the terminal either for testing, or for other rare purposes. In air taxi operations, there are hire operations done by small aircrafts which are operated by fixed – base operators at the terminal. At the terminal there exist no scheduled passenger or cargo operations. Also, since the commercial operations seem unscheduled, they usually perform targeted missions along with the general aviation operations. The military operations account for less than two operations a week. The military activity is decided considerably by the national and international policies rather than the local economic factors. The military operations can be assumed to be constant. This is so because there is no information available for the factors which could account for future military operations. Thus, we can assume that majority of operations at the Deer Valley Terminal consist of general aviation. This is also true for future. Table 1: Aircraft Operations by usage category (Estimated operations between Midnight to 6AM) YEAR Local Air Carrier local Air Taxi Local General Aviation Local Militar y Local Subtota l Itinerant General Aviation Itineran t Military Itineran t Subtotal Total 2014 17 4,622 138,971 57 143,667 219,653 32 219,685 363,352
2018 18 4,820 144,920 57 149,815 226,253 32 226,285 376,100 2023 20 5,442 163,647 57 169,166 256,435 32 256,467 425,633 2034 28 7,553 227,125 57 234,763 355,444 32 355,476 590,239 Average Annual Growth Rate 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 2.5% 2.4% 0.0% 2.4% 2.5% Table 2: Peak Operations. In year 2020, peak month is March with 9.5% annual operations. Peak hour operations are 6% on an average day during peak month. In 2025, peak month is March. The annual operations are 9.3% and peak hour operations are 5.5%. YEAR ANNUAL PEAK MONTH AWDPM PEAK HOUR 2020 363,352 36,246 1,241 133 2022 376,100 37,517 1,284 137 2024 425,633 42,458 1,453 155 2025 590,239 58,878 2,015 215 Average Annual Growth Rate 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% In the above forecast shown in the Table 2, due to anticipation of no major change, the peaking relationships remain unchanged, the peak month percentage of operations annually and the peak hour percentage of operations daily remain constant. Also, it is shown that the
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