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various sectors on the countries’ economies. This study is one of the first to assess the impact in various sectors of these economies. UNDP published two different studies on the three epicentre countries using a multi-dimensional approach (UNDP-RBA, 2014a and 2015a). It undertook field surveys in the three most affected 26 A major constraint to such studies is the availability and quality of data. SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT OF EBOLA VIRUS DISEASE IN WEST AFRICAN COUNTRIES
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38 countries to provide evidence for building assumptions for the macro-models using both macro-econometrics and CGE models. It provided a medium-term (2014-2017) estimation for key macro-economic and social variables. The endogenous growth and dynamic CGE model was employed for the study. The two approaches provide complementary results. While these studies provided some estimations of GDP reduction for each of the three most affected countries, the estimation for the West African region is carried out at the aggregate level. In addition, the impact on poverty is not analysed, not even by calculating the GDP per capita. The UNDG-WCA report, building on earlier studies, is an attempt to provide further insight into the impact of the EVD. It is the first report that will model the socio-economic impact of EVD for the 15 West African countries. The earlier studies either modelled the three epicentre countries or provided a rough estimate for the region. Also, this report discusses the EVD incidence and food security at the country level. In addition, this report uses a macro-economic model that has not previously been used to assess the impact of the EVD, except for UNDP-RBA (2014a and 2015a), but only for the three epicentre countries. Hence, this report confirms some of the results of previous studies. Finally, it uses the latest epidemiological results from the field for the model, which are more accurate than those based on relatively dated assumptions and data. 3.2. Methodology In general, the epidemic will impact the economy through three channels: direct, indirect and deferred indirect costs. The direct costs are mostly medical expenditures linked to the EVD at the macro level. At the household level, the most direct cost is the use of family savings to take care of an EVD-infected family member. Indirect costs mainly consist in a reduction of productivity (or labour participation) for those who survived, or lack of productivity for those who did not survive. The deferred indirect cost is the cost that the household will have to pay in the absence of external aid. The epidemic may destroy the fragile economic structure. Children have not been able to attend school, and the long-term impacts will be devastating. The model used in this report will capture these three effects at the aggregate level. This section summarizes the main model used to assess the impact of the EVD in West Africa and presents the results of the empirical estimations.
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