The Strategic Consequences of Drone Proliferation Given the preceding

The strategic consequences of drone proliferation

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The Strategic Consequences of Drone Proliferation Given the preceding discussion, what are the strategic consequences of drone proliferation? It depends. Drones may be transformative in some contexts but not others. In this section, we assess the impact of drone proliferation in six contexts: (1) counterterrorism; (2) interstate conflict; (3) crisis onset and deterrence; (4) coercive diplomacy; (5) civil war and domestic conflict; and (6) operations by nonstate actors. Research on the strategic effects of military technology identifies these particular contexts as potentially salient.73 We therefore focus our attention on them here, recognizing
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that they are by no means the only areas in which drones might matter. 74 As the following analysis shows, the effects of drone proliferation are heterogeneous. Current-generation drones are likely to be consequential for counterterrorism and domestic conflict, but less transformative in most other settings.
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AT: Solvency Policies to stop selling drones are ineffective and fail to consider the dual use problem Schulzke 18 (Marcus Schulzke is Lecturer in International Relations at the University of York. He received his PhD in Political Science from the University at Albany, “Drone Proliferation and the Challenge of Regulating Dual-Use Technologies”,(May 18, 2018), - article-abstract/doi/10.1093/isr/viy047/4999288 7/3) vr The controversy surrounding military drones has generated many proposals for restricting or prohibiting existing drones, additional autonomous variants that may be created in the future, and the sale of drones to certain markets. Moreover, there is broad interest in regulating military drones, with proposals coming not only from academics but also from NGOs and policymakers. I argue that these proposals generally fail to consider the dual-use character of drones and that they therefore provide inadequate regulatory guidance. Drones are not confined to the military but rather spread across international and domestic security roles, humanitarian re- lief efforts, and dozens of civilian applications. Drones, their component technologies, the control infrastructure, and the relevant technical exper- tise would continue to develop under a military-focused regulatory regime as civilian technologies that have the potential to be militarized . I evaluate the prospects of drone regulation with the help of research on other dual- use technologies, while also showing what the study of drones can con- tribute to that literature. Drones’ ubiquity in nonmilitary roles presents special regulatory challenges beyond those associated with WMDs and mis- siles, which indicates that strict regulatory controls or international gover- nance frameworks are unlikely to succeed. With this in mind, I further argue that future research should acknowledge that drone proliferation across military and civilian spheres is unavoidable and shift focus to con- sidering how drone warfare may be moderated by countermeasures and institutional pressures. Keywords: Drones, security, weapons Introduction
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  • Spring '14
  • Feldman,J

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