additional fiscal stimulus at this point. An infrastructure deal is still possible, but the question of how to pay for it will invariably arise, not to mention we think the political window to get such a deal is relatively small – probably the first half of 2019.Manufactured crises: Shutdown and debt ceilingWith no resolution in sight on the government shutdown, investors may question whether we could see the same type of brinkmanship around the debt ceiling, which by law will need to be increased by March 1(though the deadline could be extended into the summer via “extraordinary measures”). While it is certainly possible that the debt ceiling could be weaponized to extract policy concessions as it has in the past, we think it is significantly less likely under this new Congress. The House recently passed a modified so-called Gephardt rule, which would automatically raise the debt ceiling when the House passes a budget, thereby eliminating the need for a separate House vote. While it is true that the Senate would still need to take a separate vote to raise the
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