Answer Month t Actual F t T t FIT t 1 225 220 5 22500 2 232 22500 030225 22500

Answer month t actual f t t t fit t 1 225 220 5 22500

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Answer Month t Actual F t T t FIT t 1 225 220 5 225.00 2 232 225.00 + 0.30(225-225.00) = 225.00 (1 point) 5.00+0.30(225.00-225.00) = 5.00 (1 point) 230.00 (1 point) 3 234 230.00 + 0.30(232-230.00) = 230.60 5.00+0.30(230.60-230.00) = 5.18 235.78 4 239 235.78 + 0.30(234-235.78) = 235.25 5.18+0.30(235.25-235.78) = 5.02 240.27 (2 points) 7
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Name:_________________________________________________ ID:_________________________ Question 7 (12 points) Use regression analysis on deseasonalized demand to forecast demand in summer 2000, given the following historical demand data: Year Season Actual Demand 1998 Winter 18 Spring 24 Summer 32 Fall 22 1999 Winter 23 Spring 30 Summer 34 Fall 24 Answer 1. Seasonal factors 2. Desea- 3. Regression x y Average Seasonal sonalized x*Deseaso- x^2 from same factor demand nalized quarterly demand period (2) (1) (1) (1) 1 18 20.5 0.792 22.7 22.7 1 2 24 27.0 1.043 23.0 46.0 4 3 32 33.0 1.275 25.1 75.3 9 4 22 23.0 0.889 24.8 99.0 16 5 23 0.792 29.0 145.2 25 6 30 1.043 28.8 172.5 36 7 34 1.275 26.7 186.6 49 8 24 0.889 27.0 216.0 64 Total (1) 36 207 963.258315 204 Average (1) 4.5 25.875 n 8 b 0.76 (1) a 22.5 (1) 4. Projection 5. Reseason x Deseasona- Seasonal Forecast lized demand Factor 9 29.3 0.792 23.20 10 30.0 1.043 31.34 (1) 11 (1) 30.8 1.275 (1) 39.27 12 31.5 0.889 28.04 Question 8 (8 points) A plant manager employed by a national producer of kitchen products is planning workforce levels for the next three months. An aggregate unit of production requires an average of four labor hours. Forecast demand for the three-month horizon are as follows: 8
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Name:_________________________________________________ ID:_________________________ Month Workdays Forecast Demand (in aggregate units) July 23 2,400 August 16 3,000 September 20 800 Assume that a normal workday is 8 hours. Hiring costs are $500 per worker and firing costs are $1,000 per worker. Holding costs are $40.00 per aggregate unit held per month. Shortages are not permitted. Assume that the ending inventory for June was 600 and the manager wishes to have at least 800 units on hand at the end of September. June workforce level is 30 workers. Find the minimum constant workforce plan for the three months and the total hiring, firing, and holding costs of that plan. Answer Cumulative Number Forecast Cumulative Units Units of Number Net Net Produced Produced Workers Month of days Demand Demand Per Worker Per Worker Required Jul 23 1,800 1,800 46 46 40 Aug 16 3,000 4,800 32 78 62 Sep 20 1600 6,400 40 118 55 Units Produced Cumulative Cumulative Holding Month Per Worker Production Production Demand Inventory Cost Jul 46 2852 2852 1,800 1,052 42080 Aug 32 1984 4836 4,800 36 1440 Sep 40 2480 7316 6,400 1,716 68640 Total 112160 Hiring cost 16000 Total cost 128160 9
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Name:_________________________________________________ ID:_________________________ Notes: 1. Demand forecast is adjusted with beginning and end inventory. 2. The ending inventory of September is cumulative production – cumulative demand + 800 units required in the ending inventory.
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