on certain technologies and competitive practices. Table 8.4 "Developing Scenarios for the Global Credit- Union Industry" provides sample scenarios created for the credit-union industry, providing an idea of how you would do this if asked to apply scenario analysis to another industry setting. As you can see, identifying the entry of new competitors and the impact of technology are the two primary sources of uncertainty about the future. KEY TAKEAWAYS • Scenario planning was developed in the 1950s by Shell as a tool for integrating changes and uncertainties in the external context into overall strategy. Today it ranks among the top ten management tools in the world in terms of usage. Scenarios are complex, dynamic, interactive stories told from a future perspective. To develop useful scenarios, you need a rich understanding of your industry along with broad knowledge of the diverse PESTEL and global conditions that are most likely to affect them. • The six steps in formulating a scenario plan are the following: (1) choose the target issue, scope, and time frame that the scenario will explore; (2) brainstorm a set of key drivers and decision factors that influence the scenario; (3) define the two dimensions of greatest uncertainty; (4) detail the four quadrants of the scenarios with stories about that future; (5) identify indicators that could signal which scenario is unfolding; and (6) assess the strategic implications of each scenario. • Considering the distillation of issues and drivers, select two dimensions of change that will serve as the two dimensions of your scenario-planning matrix. You must be able to describe the dimensions as high and low at each extreme. EXERCISES (AACSB: Reflective Thinking, Analytical Skills) 1.What is scenario planning and analysis? 2.What is the history of scenario planning and analysis? 3.What is the advantage of scenario planning and analysis over SWOT analysis? 4.What are the six steps involved in scenario planning and analysis? 5.What is the difference between uncertainties and trends in scenario planning and analysis?
- Spring '11
- Google Inc.