2 The following criteria are used to select the scenario studies Content

2 the following criteria are used to select the

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2 The following criteria are used to select the scenario studies: Content. Studies mostly contain information on the implications for future food security under one or more scenarios, referring to at least one of the four key dimensions of food security: availability, access, utilization and stability (FAO, 1998). 3 Quantification. Scenarios studies include a quantification (i.e. by using models) of key food security variables. Time horizon . Studies explore the medium to long, covering the period up to 2030/2050, which seems to be the standard horizon for many scenario studies. 4 Year of publication. This review focus on the most recent studies and therefore a choice was made to include only studies that have been published from the year 2000 and onwards. Some organisations publish updated scenario studies every three to five year (e.g. the Global Environmental Outlook produced by the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP)). In such cases, only the most recent study is included. 2 We have consulted the following databases: Google Scholar, CAB Direct and Scopus. In addition, as the majority of scenario studies are published as non-refereed reports, we also have looked for the latest documents on websites of international organisations and leading research institutes that have experience with scenario analysis. 3 This review does not cover the analysis of the new Share Socio-economic Pathways (SSPS) (Kriegler et al., 2012; O’Neill et al., 2012) that were partially analysed in the ongoing Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP.) (Nelson and Shively, 2013). At the time of writing of this paper, the data was not available. Moreover, as the principal aim of the AgMIP project is to compare model results, the SSPs are modelled in a somewhat stylised way, which might not be directly comparable with the scenarios that are reviewed here. 4 For this reason, the review does not comprise the regular short to medium run food and agriculture assessments, such as the FAO/OECD Agricultural Outlook , FAO’s State of Food and Agriculture and the State of the World by the Worldwatch Institute. See McCalla and Revoredo (2001) for a detailed analysis and comparison of such studies.
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