bargaining power: to the degree that a Taiwan government bargains away some of Taiwan’s sovereign status today, Taiwan’s future bargaining power with Beijing will be further diminished. Perhaps most importantly, even a loose unification bargain would almost certainly reduce even further Taiwan’s confidence that the United States would intervene ina future cross-strait conflict—because in the aftermath of a unification agreement U.S. involvement would represent intervention in a civil, rather than an international, conflict. Thus, any bargain involving a reduction in Taiwan’s sovereignty should independently reduce Beijing’s expected costs of war, thus pushing China’s redline, R, even further to the left. The credibility of Beijing’s commitment to such a bargain would therefore be suspect, becauseonce the commitment was implemented, Beijing would have incentives to demand an even more favorable bargain (and Taiwan would not be in a position where it could refuse).This situation thus represents a dynamic commitment problem, where the good being bargained over (in this case, Taiwan’s sovereignty) has implications for future bargaining power of the parties involved.99 Absent a mechanism that obliges Beijing to honor theagreement, Taiwan could reject the bargaineven if it recognizes that this could lead to war.
AT: De facto independenceChina will only go to war over formalindependenceMearsheimer, 14 - John J. Mearsheimer is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago. He serves on the Advisory Council of The National Interest. This article is adapted from a speechhe gave in Taipei on December 7, 2013, to the Taiwanese Association of International Relations. An updated edition of his book The Tragedy of Great PowerPolitics will be published in April by W. W. Norton (“Say Goodbye to Taiwan” National Interest, March-April, However, Taiwan is not going to gain formal independence in the foreseeable future, mainly because China would not tolerate that outcome. In fact, China has made it clear that it would go to war against Taiwan if the island declares its independence. The antisecession law, which China passed in 2005, says explicitly that “the state shall employ nonpeaceful means and other necessary measures” if Taiwan moves toward de jure independence. It is also worth noting that the United States does not recognize Taiwan as a sovereign country, and according to President Obama, Washington “fully supports a one-China policy.”¶Thus, the best situation Taiwan can hope forin the foreseeable future ismaintenance of the status quo, which means de facto independence. In fact, over 90 percent of the Taiwanesesurveyedthis past June by the Election Study Center favored maintainingthe status quoindefinitelyor until some later date.
2nc Links + Link o/vThe plan causes China to reclaim Taiwan and makes their hostile rise possible—absent U.S. military presence, nothing deters China from cheating the deal- Paal