Figure 7 Real income per capita in China and India 26 This income crossover can

Figure 7 real income per capita in china and india 26

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Figure 7: Real income per capita in China and India 26. This income crossover can be traced in no small measure to the very diferent demographic trajectories experienced by China and India, as demonstrated by the dissimilarites in TFR (Total Fertlity Rate) and the rato of the working-age to the non-working-age populaton between the two countries (Figure 8). Figure 8: Demographic changes in China and India 27. India and China are credited with establishing the world’s earliest natonal family planning programs, in 1952 and 1956, respectvely. a. In strictly demographic terms, China’s campaign of “later, longer, fewer” and its one-child policy (beginning in 1979) led to a precipitous decline in fertlity and a sharp rise in the working-age share of the populaton (Atane 2002, Robinson and Ross 2007). b. Meanwhile, India’s family planning program led to politcal backlash that ultmately set back its family planning eforts and pushed India’s demographic trajectory out of phase with China’s. Demographics are one powerful driver of economic performance, and India and China’s economic trajectories began to diverge. 28. The diference between India’s and China’s economic trajectories may begin to narrow as India’s working-age share contnues to rise, positoning India to recoup some of the income per capita ground it lost relatve to China between 1990 and 2010. 9 Downloaded by Vicky Gupta ([email protected]) lOMoARcPSD|3929542
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29. Researchers have explored the China-India comparison in great detail, spurred by China having emerged as a major economic power while India has experienced a much slower economic transformaton. 30. Bloom, Canning, Hu, Liu, Mahal, and Yip (2010) track key features of economic growth in China and India since 1980, and fnd that higher rates of economic growth in both countries are atributable to a. rises in longevity b. increased trade or openness of the economy, and c. a higher share of the working-age populaton. 31. Notably, the authors predict that moving forward, economic growth in China will be slowed by fatening increases in life expectancy and a rising dependency rate due to a rapidly aging populaton.Similarly, in contrast, the authors predict that the efects of a fertlity decline and rising longevity in India will create a rise in the working-age share of the total populaton in that country, allowing for higher growth rates in India over the next 30 years. 32. Vanzo et al (2010) compare demographic conditons and their implicatons in China and India , fnding that in the short run a. China holds more of the prerequisites needed to take full advantage of its demographic dividend: i. more fexible labor markets; ii. higher rates of female labor force partcipaton, iii. more highly educated women, iv. more open attudes about women working; v. less illiteracy in general (and especially for women); vi. beter infrastructure; vii. more internal migraton and a higher degree of urbanizaton, viii. more openness to foreign trade, and ix. slightly higher rates of coverage by public pensions b. However, i n the long run the authors fnd that
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