35 source icao estimates break down of estimated

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35 Source : ICAO estimates Break-down of estimated impact in 1Q 2020 Scope of analysis Scenario 1 Scenario 2 International from/to mainland China (Chinese carriers) -11,700 -45% -11,700 -45% -9,900 -48% -10,500 -51% -$2,190 -$2,300 International from/to mainland China (Foreign carriers) -9,400 -49% -9,400 -49% -8,200 -51% -8,600 -53% -$2,150 -$2,230 Regional between mainland China and Hong Kong SAR of China -2,000 -51% -2,000 -51% -1,700 -57% -1,800 -58% -$230 -$240 Regional between mainland China and Macao SAR of China -800 -49% -800 -49% -700 -55% -700 -57% -$90 -$90 Regional between mainland China and Taiwan, Province of China -1,500 -45% -1,500 -45% -1,400 -52% -1,400 -55% -$180 -$190 Sub-total -25,300 -47% -25,300 -47% -21,900 -50% -22,900 -53% -$4,850 -$5,050 Hong Kong International -4,400 -31% -4,400 -31% -4,300 -37% -4,800 -41% -$1,200 -$1,340 Macao International -700 -50% -700 -50% -600 -53% -600 -54% -$110 -$110 Taiwan International -2,500 -20% -2,500 -20% -2,500 -24% -2,800 -27% -$550 -$620 Cross-Strait -1,500 -46% -1,500 -46% -1,400 -53% -1,500 -56% -$190 -$190 Sub-total -9,200 -29% -9,200 -29% -8,800 -34% -9,700 -37% -$2,050 -$2,270 Grand total -34,500 -40% -34,500 -40% -30,800 -44% -32,600 -47% -$6,900 -$7,320 Estimated Impact on Number of seats offered by airlines (000) Number of passengers (000) Gross operating revenues of airlines (USD, million) Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 1 Scenario 2
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36 Source : ICAO estimates Domestic passenger services in mainland China in 1Q 2020 The preliminary estimates indicate the impact in terms of scheduled domestic passenger traffic within mainland China during 1Q 2020 compared to originally-planned: Overall reduction of 40% of seats offered by airlines Overall reduction of 66.6 to 75.8 million passengers Approx. USD 6.7 to 7.6 billion potential loss of gross operating revenues of airlines Scope of analysis Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Domestic within mainland China -76,100 -40% -76,100 -40% -66,600 -42% -75,800 -48% -$6,460 -$7,774 Assumption Calculated with an average fare of USD 97 per passenger based on CANNews.com.cn estimates Calculated with an average fare of USD 102.5 per passenger based on traffic/financial reports of CA, CZ and MU Number of seats offered by airlines (000) Number of passengers (000) Gross operating revenues of airlines (USD, million) Estimated Impact on Seat capacity is reduced by 3% in January 2020 and 60% in February and March 2020 from the originally-planned schedules (baseline) Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Load factor is down from 83% (baseline) to 80% for 1Q 2020 Load factor is down from 83% (baseline) to 80% in January 2020, 58% in February 2020 and 65% in March 2020
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37 Source : ICAO estimates Potential loss of revenues from Chinese tourists to top 5 States in 1Q 2020 Data excludes Special Administrative Regions (SAR) of China (Hong Kong SAR and Macao SAR) and Taiwan, Province of China Calculated with average international tourism spending of China (USD 970) per tourist reported by UNWTO Passenger number Tourism revenue (in million USD)* Passenger number Tourism revenue (in million USD)* Passenger number Tourism revenue (in million USD)* 460,161 446.36 340,318 330.11 296,616 287.72 Loss - - -119,843 -116.25 -163,545 -158.64 240,523 233.31 137,867 133.73 120,670 117.05 Loss - - -102,656 -99.58 -119,853 -116.26 3,181,840 3,086.38 2,167,273 2102.25 1,855,034 1,799.38 Loss - - -1,014,567 -984.13 -1,326,806 -1287.00 2,772,352 2,689.18 1,826,629 1771.83 1,589,458 1,541.77 Loss - - -945,723 -917.35 -1,182,894 -1147.41 888,102 861.46 505,096 489.94 446,707 433.31 Loss - - -383,006 -371.52 -441,395 -428.15 Australia France Japan Thailand United States Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Top 5 States that Chinese traveller had the largest share
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38 Scenario Analysis: Republic of Korea This is a preliminary analysis. Figures and estimates herein will be updated with the situation evolving and more information available.
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  • Fall '19
  • Republic of China, People's Republic of China, Mainland China, Macao SAR of China, Hong Kong SAR of China

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