scenario successfully, but then again, Germany's economic situation in the 1920s was hardly that strong either. Thus, I am afraid that economics will not deter the power scenario's would-be authors from attempting it. Baburin, for example, warned that any political leader who would "dare to encroach upon Russia" would be decisively repulsed by the Russian Federation "by all measures on heaven and earth up to the use of nuclear weapons. " n10 In autumn 1996 Oleg Grynevsky, Russian ambassador to Sweden and former Soviet arms control negotiator, while saying that NATO expansion increases the risk of nuclear war, reminded his Western listeners that Russia has enough missiles to destroy both the
Northwestern U Debate Institute 2012 Sophomores Oil DA Corrigan/Fisher/McCarty/Tate United States and Europe . n11 Former Russian minister of defense Igor Rodionov warned several times that Russia's vast nuclear arsenal could become uncontrollable. In this context, one should keep in mind that, despite dramatically reduced nuclear arsenals -- and tensions -- Russia and the United States remain poised to launch their missiles in minutes . I cannot but agree with Anatol Lieven, who wrote, "It may be, therefore, that with all the new Russian order's many problems and weaknesses, it will for a long time be able to stumble on, until we all fall down together." n12 There are signs indicating that this scenario is emerging . The new military doctrine has actually reversed the pledge never to use nuclear weapons first. Earlier this year, Ivan Rybkin, secretary of Russia's Security Council, said, "Everyone must know that in case of a direct challenge our response will be fully fledged, and we are to choose the use of means." n13 Later, in an interview, he said that parliamentary ratification of START II has become "almost impossible." n14 The Duma has again postponed the ratification of the Chemical Weapons Convention, and Russian military planners are claiming that the only feasible military response to NATO expansion is the redeployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons closer to Russia's borders .
Northwestern U Debate Institute 2012 Sophomores Oil DA Corrigan/Fisher/McCarty/Tate Impacts - Russia - Russian Loose Nukes An economic collapse would decrease Russian nuclear safeguards - leads to an accidental nuclear launch Bukharin 3 (Oleg Bukharin is a Research Staff Member at Princeton University's Center for Energy and Environmental. August 2003. Princeton University. “The Future of Russia: The Nuclear Factor” ) Sherman While the probability of an intentional nuclear war between the United States and ¶ Russia has declined dramatically, the two countries continue to maintain a significant ¶ fraction of their nuclear forces on a hair-trigger alert, ready for launch on a several- ¶ ¶ Whether Russia completed the elimination of tactical warheads it pledged to destroy is not known. This posture and the deterioration of command, control, and early ¶ warning infrastructure in Russia have raised concerns about an accidental nuclear launch ¶ of Russian nuclear missiles.
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