Main structure to 1220 years and made it practical to

This preview shows page 238 - 240 out of 334 pages.

main structure to 12–20 years, and made it practical to incorporate power assistance for steering, brakes, window operation, soft top operation, etc. Other everyday engineering artefacts (e.g. washing machines, dish washers, freezers) have similarly benefited. What is Reliability Theory? Reliability theory suggests that biological systems start their adult life with a high load of initial damage. Reliability theory is a general theory about systems failure. It allows researchers to predict the age-related failure kinetics for a system of given architecture (reliability structure) and given reliability of its components. Reliability theory predicts that even those systems that are entirely composed of non-aging elements (with a constant (c) UPES, Not for Reproduction/ Sale
Image of page 238
UNIT 17: Reliability Fundamental Theories Notes ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ ___________________ failure rate) will also deteriorate (fail more often) with age, if these systems are redundant in irreplaceable elements. Aging, therefore, is a direct consequence of systems redundancy. Reliability theory also predicts the late-life mortality deceleration with subsequent levelling-off, as well as the late-life mortality plateaus, as an inevitable consequence of redundancy exhaustion at extreme old ages. The theory explains why mortality rates increase exponentially with age (the Gompertz law) in many species, by taking into account the initial flaws (defects) in newly formed systems. It also explains why organisms “prefer” to die according to the Gompertz law, while technical devices usually fail according to the Weibull (power) law. Reliability theory allows specifying conditions when organisms die according to the Weibull law: organisms should be relatively free of initial flaws and defects. The theory makes it possible to find a general failure law applicable to all adult and extreme old ages, where the Gompertz and the Weibull laws are just special cases of this more general failure law. The theory explains why relative differences in mortality rates of compared populations (within a given species) vanish with age (compensation law of mortality), and mortality convergence is observed due to the exhaustion of initial differences in redundancy levels. Reliability theory is developed apart from the mainstream of probability and statistics. It was originally a tool to help nineteenth century maritime insurance and life insurance companies compute profitable rates to charge their customers. Even today, the terms “failure rate” and “hazard rate” are often used interchangeably. The failure of mechanical devices such as ships, trains, and cars, is similar in many ways to the life or death of biological organisms. Statistical models appropriate for any of these topics are generically called “time-to-event” models. Death or failure is called an “event”, and the goal is to project or forecast the rate of events for a given population or the probability of an event for an individual.
Image of page 239
Image of page 240

You've reached the end of your free preview.

Want to read all 334 pages?

  • Fall '19
  • Instrument approach, Runway, Rajiv, Aviation Safety & Security Management

What students are saying

  • Left Quote Icon

    As a current student on this bumpy collegiate pathway, I stumbled upon Course Hero, where I can find study resources for nearly all my courses, get online help from tutors 24/7, and even share my old projects, papers, and lecture notes with other students.

    Student Picture

    Kiran Temple University Fox School of Business ‘17, Course Hero Intern

  • Left Quote Icon

    I cannot even describe how much Course Hero helped me this summer. It’s truly become something I can always rely on and help me. In the end, I was not only able to survive summer classes, but I was able to thrive thanks to Course Hero.

    Student Picture

    Dana University of Pennsylvania ‘17, Course Hero Intern

  • Left Quote Icon

    The ability to access any university’s resources through Course Hero proved invaluable in my case. I was behind on Tulane coursework and actually used UCLA’s materials to help me move forward and get everything together on time.

    Student Picture

    Jill Tulane University ‘16, Course Hero Intern

Stuck? We have tutors online 24/7 who can help you get unstuck.
A+ icon
Ask Expert Tutors You can ask You can ask You can ask (will expire )
Answers in as fast as 15 minutes
A+ icon
Ask Expert Tutors