The Law of Parsimony When you have two theories the one with the fewest steps

The law of parsimony when you have two theories the

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The Law of Parsimony When you have two theories, the one with the fewest steps, explanation, and concepts is usually preferred. Statistics: the Language of science Statistics How we gain info from data Types: Descriptive Central tendency Mean, median (used a lot, not sensitive to outliers, the middle score), mode Variability Range, standard deviation (sq. rt. of the variance) Inferential
Statistical significance (often p) as in p>.05 Confidence intervals Effect sizes 2/18 Review: - Why do we need research designs? - System 1 thinking - Heuristics/cognitive biases - Availability bias - Confirmation bias - Base rate neglect - Hindsight bias - Barnum effect Hot-hand fallacy - Experiments - Comparison - Control - Manipulation - Independent variable (IV) - Dependent variable (DV) - Extraneous/confounding variable - Articles - Story of John Snow and cholera in London - Clever Hans and Oskar Pfungst - The Experiment - Manipulate the probable causal variable - Independent variable - Keep the other possible alternative explanations constant - Extraneous or confounding variables - Then measures the variable that you think the IV is causing the effect on - Dependent variable - Measures - Self report - Pros and cons - Naturalistic observation - validity (internal and external?) - Case study - Ratings - Halo effect / reverse halo
- Evaluating measures - Reliability - Validity - Utility - Correlational designs - What does a positive or negative correlation mean? - Illusory/spurious correlation - Alternative explanations for correlations - How do we determine causation? - Statistics - Descriptive - Central tendency (mean, median, mode) - Variability ( range, standard deviation) - Inferental - Statistical significance (probabilistic) - Confidence intervals - How people lie/manipulate with statistics - Truncate axes - Report inappropriate stats for situation - Suppress negative results - “Cherry picking” - Ethical issues in research design - Tuskegee study - IRB/IACUC - Informed consent - Deception - Debriefing 20 questions scantron

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• Fall '17
• CindyPury
• Causality, Correlational

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