Chap 4 EX-4(AutoRecovered).xlsx

Residual 3 32 106666667 total 8 608 error t stat p

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Residual 3 3.2 1.06666667 Total 8 60.8 CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Intercept 3.2 X Variable 1 57.6 X Variable 2 0.91580967 X Variable 3 54 1 65535 #NUM! 54 54 54 X Variable 4 46.6 1.08320512 43.0204761 #NUM! 43.1527579 50.0472421 43.1527579 X Variable 5 2.4 0.32659863 7.34846923 0.00520786 1.36061739 3.43938261 1.36061739
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Upper 95.0% 3.2 57.6 5.08419033 54 50.0472421 3.43938261
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Trend Projection Line = y = 5.26 + 1.11(x) Month Trend Error Abs Squared % 1 Period 1 7 6.37 0.63 0.63 0.3969 0.09 2 Period 2 9 7.48 1.52 1.52 2.3104 0.1688889 3 Period 3 5 8.59 -3.59 3.59 12.8881 0.718 4 Period 4 11 9.7 1.3 1.3 1.69 0.1181818 5 Period 5 10 10.81 -0.81 0.81 0.6561 0.081 6 Period 6 13 11.92 1.08 1.08 1.1664 0.0830769 7 Period 7 13.03 8 Period 8 14.14 9 Period 9 15.25 10 Period 10 16.36 8.93 19.1079 125.91% 1.4883333 3.18465 20.99% Correlation Coefficient 0.7294712 Coefficient Determination 0.5321283 Actual Demand Dt
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Year 1 2 3 4 5 Heart Trans 48 52 55 56 58 Trend Projection Line = y = 5.26 + 1.11(x) Month Trend Error Abs Squared % 1 Period 1 48 6.37 41.63 41.63 1733.0569 0.8672917 2 Period 2 52 7.48 44.52 44.52 1982.0304 0.8561538 3 Period 3 55 8.59 46.41 46.41 2153.8881 0.8438182 4 Period 4 56 9.7 46.3 46.3 2143.69 0.8267857 5 Period 5 58 10.81 47.19 47.19 2226.8961 0.8136207 6 Period 6 11.92 -11.92 11.92 142.0864 #DIV/0! 7 Period 7 13.03 8 Period 8 14.14 9 Period 9 15.25 10 Period 10 16.36 237.97 10381.648 #DIV/0! 39.661667 1730.2747 #DIV/0! Correlation Coefficient0.9733285 Coefficient Determinat0.9473684 Actual Demand Dt
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Trend Projection y = 126+18(x) Demand Forecast MAD MSE MAPE 1 140 144 -4 4 16 2.9% 2 160 162 -2 2 4 1.3% 3 190 180 10 10 100 5.3% 4 200 198 2 2 4 1.0% 5 210 216 -6 6 36 2.9% 6 234 7 252 4.8 32 2.6% 8 270
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D F Dif MAD MSE MAPE 1 17 17 0 0 0 0% 2 21 17 4 4 16 19% 3 19 19.4 -0.4 0.4 0.16 2% 4 23 19.16 3.84 3.84 14.7456 17% 5 18 21.464 -3.464 3.464 11.9993 19% 6 16 19.3856 -3.3856 3.3856 11.46229 21% 7 20 17.35424 2.64576 2.64576 7.000046 13% 8 18 18.9417 -0.941696 0.941696 0.886791 5% 9 22 18.37668 3.623322 3.623322 13.12846 16% 10 20 20.55067 -0.550671 0.550671 0.303239 3% 11 15 20.22027 -5.220269 5.220269 27.2512 35% 12 22 17.08811 4.911893 4.911893 24.12669 22% 20.03524 Alpha 0.6 2.748601 10.58863 0.144221
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D F Dif MAD MSE MAPE 1 48 44.0 4
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