-static risk factor is a characteristic of the offender related to outcome that cannot change -age at first arrest, etc -dynamic risk factor is a factor that contributes to outcome but is changeable -substance abuse Risk management components -risk control - apply restrictions, reduce likelihood of criminal behavior -attempts to alter the immediate environment -motivation is not primary concern -risk reduction - use of tx programs to change level of risk -reduce the probability of new offenses -attempts to change the offenders thought and emotions -eventually the offender chooses to obey the law Risk classification errors -type 1 error -case classified as low risk - person fails -far more visible -public losses faith in system -in major cases, public starts calling for reform -may put programs in jeopardy -type 2 error 29
-case classified as high risk of failure - person succeeds -often called invisible error -hardly ever hear of a high risk person succeeding in the media -cost of these errors less severe -people do not care about success as much as failure Managing risk strategies -plans for different levels of involvement in a case -levels of involvement place on a continuum of supervision -enforcement structured accordingly Evolution of classification -first generation - “gut feelings” -second generation - primary static predictors -third generation - combining static and dynamic risk factors Problems wit First Generation -subject to personal bias -predictions are subjects -decision rules are not observed -can lead to biased decisions -difficult to distinguish levels -information may be overlooked or overemphasized Second Generation -pros -objective -covers important historic factors -easy to use and score -distinguishes levels of risk -cons -consists of static predictors that cannot change -does not identify target behaviors -does not allow for measurement of change in the offender Third Generation -pros -includes both static and dynamic factors -distinguishes levels of risk and needs -allows for reassessment of offender -identifies targets for change -covers wider range of factors -cons -reliability can be an issue -training is more complex -takes longer to administer 30
Domains of the level of service inventory - revised -criminal history -education and employment -financial status -family/marital status -accommodation -leisure and recreation -companions -alcohol/drugs -emotional and personal -attitudes and orientations Specialized assessment tools -sexual behavior -substance abuse -criminal attitudes -spousal abuse -violence -personality Assessment in probation and parole -almost 75% of agencies used assessment tools -83% believe it is “absolutely” or “very” necessary to assess offenders -almost 80% reassess offenders Assessment is important -guides decision making -reduces bias -improves placement -helps manage offenders -aids in legal challenges -helps utilize resources Principle of offender classification -risk - predict future criminal behavior and match services to level -need - match offender to services
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- Spring '20