U basis of estimates described in sections 6432 and

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uBasis of estimates.Described in Sections 6.4.3.2 and 7.2.3.2. The basis of estimates used in the planning ofthe project may be reflected in variability modeled during a quantitative risk analysis process. This may includeinformation on the estimate’s purpose, classification, assumed accuracy, methodology, and source.uCost estimates.Described in Section 7.2.3.1. Cost estimates provide the starting point from which cost variabilityis evaluated.uCost forecasts.Described in Section 7.4.3.2. Forecasts such as the project’s estimate to complete (ETC),estimate at completion (EAC), budget at completion (BAC), and to-complete performance index (TCPI) may becompared to the results of a quantitative cost risk analysis to determine the confidence level associated withachieving these targets.uDuration estimates.Described in Section 6.4.3.1. Duration estimates provide the starting point from whichschedule variability is evaluated.uMilestone list.Described in Section 6.2.3.3. Significant events in the project define the schedule targets againstwhich the results of a quantitative schedule risk analysis are compared, in order to determine the confidencelevel associated with achieving these targets.
��431uResource requirements.Described in Section 9.2.3.1. Resource requirements provide the starting point fromwhich variability is evaluated.uRisk register.Described in Section 11.2.3.1. The risk register contains details of individual project risks to beused as input for quantitative risk analysis.uRisk report.Described in Section 11.2.3.2. The risk report describes sources of overall project risk and thecurrent overall project risk status.uSchedule forecasts.Described in Section 6.6.3.2. Forecasts may be compared to the results of a quantitativeschedule risk analysis to determine the confidence level associated with achieving these targets.11.4.1.3 ENTERPRISE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORSThe enterprise environmental factors that can influence the Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis process include butare not limited to:uIndustry studies of similar projects, anduPublished material, including commercial risk databases or checklists.11.4.1.4 ORGANIZATIONAL PROCESS ASSETSThe organizational process assets that can influence the Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis process includeinformation from similar completed projects.11.4.2 PERFORM QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS: TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES11.4.2.1 EXPERT JUDGMENTDescribed in Section 4.1.2.1. Expertise should be considered from individuals or groups with specialized knowledgeor training in the following topics:uTranslating information on individual project risks and other sources of uncertainty into numeric inputs for thequantitative risk analysis model,uSelecting the most appropriate representation of uncertainty to model particular risks or other sources of uncertainty,uModeling techniques that are appropriate in the context of the project,uIdentifying which tools would be most suitable for the selected modeling techniques, anduInterpreting the outputs of quantitative risk analysis.
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