GV
GV101 Week 7.docx

Lecture shift from expressive voting partisan

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2. Lecture - Shift from expressive voting (partisan alignment) to strategic voting (voting to produce an outcome close as possible to one’s policy preferences) - The ‘Alford Index’ at 3% suggesting class does not affect voting (2015 UK Election) - Age has become more of a predictor of voting in the UK - Gelman (2008) highlights the contradiction between individual and aggregate levels of voting; rich individuals vote Republican while rich states vote Democrat - A white backlash in the Trump election? - Change in immigration affected both Trump election and Brexit vote; Boston, Lincolnshire had highest %change of migration in the past 15 years, also highest % leave vote - Cerrato, Ruggieri and Ferrara; the idea of an ‘Import Shock’, where the number of imports in certain sectors leads to changes in voting patterns. - Reasons for strategic voting; o To influence the election outcome in a constituency (Local) o To influence government formation and policy outcomes (National) - 2015 British Election, 1 in 5 voters do not vote for their ‘first preference’ party - Other, non-policy based considerations influence voters such as ‘valence’ (quality of party leaders) - Government performance (economic) also affects voters as they are less likely to vote for the party if they perceive that the economy is performing worse 3. Class -
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  • Winter '15
  • Voting system, Plurality voting system, Lipset

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