2 economic benefit 1 environmental problem 2

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2 Economic Benefit 1 Environmental Problem 2 Irrigation profit ($10 9 ) Infrastructure investment ($10 9 ) Investment ofit Irr Pr . Percolation (cm) Soil salinity (dm/s) Water use (m 3 /ha) 0.0 (Base- line) 2.5 0 - 46.9 1.643 12,346 0.1 +0.05 0.049 1.02 44.1 1.727 11,334 0.2 +0.10 0.095 1.05 34.7 1.924 10,557 0.3 +0.14 0.142 0.98 29.4 2.000 8,603 1 Basin Average 2 Demand Site: Fergana, Soil Type: loam, Crop: Cotton-Forage 38
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Demand sites (upstream- downstream) Basin/Region Node-link network (reservoir, aquifers, and river reaches) Crop fields Water allocation Water allocation Water and salinity balance Water and salinity balance Water and salinity balance Crop yield, area, prod., & profit Other inputs, in-field tech., labor, land, fertilizer, etc. Net profit in demand sites Net profit in the basin Return flow & pollutants Figure 1. Spatial scales for hydrologic and economic modeling 39
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0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 soil moisture (Z) relative yield (Y ks=0 ks=0.1 ks=0.2 ks=0.3 ks=0.4 Figure 2. Crop yield vs. soil moisture under various soil salinity 40
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Reservoir Inflow River Node Diversion Demand Site Return Flow Aquifer Naryn R. Karadarya R. Chirchik R. Tok_down Kurpsai Res. Tashkamur Res. Samdalsai Res. Utchkurgan Res. Naryn Toktogul Res. Naryn_gate Fergana Karadar_in Right_in Aksu_in Andijan Res. Kayrakum Res. Farhad Res. Shimi_in Chakir_in Chardara Res. Aris_in Artur_gate Kazak_gate Aral Sea Chakir Charvak Res. Artur Bogun Res. Low Syr Bogun R. Mid Syr Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Uzbekistan Kazakhstan Figure 3.  The Syr Darya River basin network. 41
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1.5 2 2.5 3 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Water Supply Reliability Profit (billion $) Figure 4. Irrigation profits under varying water supply reliability (probability for certain amount of water supply derived from long-term hydrologic records) 42
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0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec Baseline Full Optimization Figure 5. Monthly release of Toktogul Reservoir under the baseline and full optimization se- cenarios. 43
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0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec Release (km3/mo) Kayrakum Toktogul Chardara Figure 6. Releases of three major reservoirs under the master scenario. 44
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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec Storage (km3) Toktogul Chardara Kayrakum Figure 7. Storage of three major reservoirs ( master scenario) 45
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0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 Tok_down Naryn_gate Karadar_in Right_in Aksu_in Shimi_in Chakir_in Aris_in Artur_gate Kazak_gate River Nodes (Upstream --> Downstream) Baseline Master MAC = 1 Uzbekista Kazakhsta Uzbekista Tajikista Kyrgyzsta Figure 8. Average salt concentration for July to September along the Syr Darya River 46
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20 25 30 35 40 45 50 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Tax Rate ($/ton) Withdrawal and Salt Discharge Withdrawal (km3) Salt Discharge (1000 tons) Figure 9. Irrigation water withdrawal and salt discharge vs. tax charge on salt discharge 47
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3 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Tax Rate ($/ton) Benefit Agricultural Benefit ($ billion) Total Benefit ($ billion) Figure 10. Irrigation profit and total water use benefit vs. tax on salt discharge 48
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