In the high ebola scenario the loss relative to the

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In the high Ebola scenario, the loss relative to the baseline is around US$15 per capita. Figure 13: Guinea: Impact of the Ebola virus disease on GDP growth and GDP per capita growth, 2014-2017 Source: Authors’ estimation. Table 8: Guinea: Macro-economic impacts of the Ebola virus disease, 2004-2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 (US$ million) GDP change in Low Ebola scenario -84.7 -155.9 -214.7 -282.3 GDP change in High Ebola scenario -118.4 -238.7 -388.4 -516.3 Source: Authors’ estimation. GDP per capita growth (%) GDP growth (%) No Ebola Low Ebola High Ebola 2014 2015 2016 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 -2 -1 0 1 2 0 1 2 3 4 SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT OF EBOLA VIRUS DISEASE IN WEST AFRICAN COUNTRIES
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43 Liberia. Liberia is the second most affected country in terms of cases and fatalities. Indeed, according to the WHO, as of 7 February 2015, around 8,881 cases were reported, resulting in 3,826 deaths. The impact of the EVD in terms of GDP loss is around US$159 million in 2015 in the low scenario and US$214 million for the high scenario. On average, the loss of GDP is estimated at US$187.7 million per year, or an average of 13.7 percent of GDP during the 2014-2017 period. For the high scenario, the average loss is around 18.7 percent of the average GDP, or US$245.2 million annually, over the same period. In terms of GDP per capita, the loss for Liberia is on average US$38 per year in the low scenario and US$48 per year for the high scenario. In the low scenario, the loss of GDP per capita growth is around 4 percent compared to around 5 percent for the high scenario (figure 14 and table 9). Figure 14: Liberia: Impact of the Ebola virus disease on GDP growth and GDP per capita growth, 2014-2017 Source: Authors’ estimation. Table 9: Liberia: Macro-economic impacts of the Ebola virus disease, 2004-2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 (US$ million) GDP change in Low EVD scenario -105.3 -159.0 -221.1 -265.2 GDP change in High Ebola scenario -135.7 -214.3 -289.1 -341.8 Source: Authors’ estimation. GDP per capita growth (%) GDP growth (%) No Ebola Low Ebola High Ebola 2014 2015 2016 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT OF EBOLA VIRUS DISEASE IN WEST AFRICAN COUNTRIES
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44 Sierra Leone. Sierra Leone is the most affected country, with 10,934 cases, including 3,341 reported deaths (as of 8 February 2015). The lack of data did not allow for a forecast of the GDP of the country beyond 2015. In terms of GDP growth, according to the low scenario, there is a 6-percentage point reduction of GDP growth in 2014 and 8 percentage points for the high scenario. In the low scenario, the country will lose around US$219 million in 2015 in the low scenario and US$286 million in the high scenario. Over the 2014-17 period, the country will lose between US$200.7 million (7.1% of average GDP) and US$264.3 million for the low and high scenarios, respectively (figure 15 and table 10). Figure 15: Sierra Leone: Impact of the Ebola virus disease on GDP growth and GDP per capita growth, 2014-2017 Source: Authors’ estimation. Table 10: Sierra Leone: Macro-economic impacts of the Ebola virus disease, 2004-2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 (US$ million) GDP change in Low EVD scenario -145.1 -219.2 -219.2 -219.2 GDP change in High EVD scenario -196.7 -286.8 -286.8 -286.8 Source: Authors’ estimation. GDP per capita growth (%) GDP growth (%) No Ebola Low Ebola High Ebola 2014 2015 2016 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT OF EBOLA VIRUS DISEASE IN WEST AFRICAN COUNTRIES
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