The prevalence probability for evd is calculated

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The prevalence probability for EVD is calculated using data of the World Health Organization (WHO) on EVD prevalence probability for each West African country. 32 To capture the country’s ability to quickly tackle Ebola transmission, two health-related variables were used: improved sanitation facilities, which measures the percentage of the population using improved sanitation facilities. This variable captures the level of risk of EVD contamination; health expenditures per capita (or health expenditures as a percentage of GDP), which aims at measuring the health system financing; it represents an indicator of the country’s ability to quickly allocate sufficient financial resources to protect the population in the case of hazard events such as EVD. To estimate the macro-Ebola model, the main constraints are the availability of data for forecasting GDP per capita. This constraint reduces the forecast horizon. Hence, the estimation of the impact of the EVD is done over the period 2014-2017. For some countries (e.g. Sierra Leone, Guinea Bissau), it is not possible to estimate the impact through to 2017 due to a lack of data. The data used for this estimation are from the World Development Indicators (WDI) of the World Bank, covering the period 1980-2013 for the historical data. These data allow to estimate the GDP per capita. For the forecast of 2014-2017, this report uses the data from the forecast carried out by the IMF for each of the 15 West African countries. These data allow to calibrate the GDP per capita function and then to forecast the impact of the EVD on GDP per capita. Three models are estimated. The first model is the case with no Ebola, which is the baseline model. Two models are then estimated: the low case EVD model and the high Ebola scenario model. 32 Benin, Burkina-Faso, Cape Verde, Niger and Togo. These five countries have no assigned probabilities for the Ebola scenario in the World Bank report. This report has assigned the probability distribution of similar countries. SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT OF EBOLA VIRUS DISEASE IN WEST AFRICAN COUNTRIES
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89 Annex 5. The two sector model Following Cuddington and Hancock (1993a), we assume a two-sector economy with formal and informal sectors. The formal sector is capital-intensive, whereas the informal sector is labour-intensive. Jobs in the formal sector are preferred by workers since the formal sector wage, in the short term, is higher than in the informal sector. Workers in the informal sector are mostly self-employed. The formal sector We consider a Solow growth model framework where the main production factors are capital and labour. Labour supply. The EVD is having a dramatic consequence on population size. We will be using population forecast by five-year age cohort i . If N it is the population in age cohort i at the time t , total labour supply at time t is: L S t = ∑ 64 i=15 p i N it (9) Where p i is the labour participation rate for a population cohort i .
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  • Fall '19
  • West Africa

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