# 2 it enables the users to compare the actual

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2) It enables the users to compare the actual performance with the expected performance and analyses the different causes of variation. 3) It is helpful in future operations. 4) It enables to evaluate the current accomplishment or performances and ascertain the causes in case of poor performance. 5) It is useful in planning, state administration business, social and other areas of human knowledge. 19.3.3. COMPONENTS OF TIME SERIES A time series consists of the following four components: 1. Trend (or) Secular trend (T) 2. Seasonal variations (S) 3. Cyclical variation (C) 4. Irregular variations (I) 19.3.3.1. Trend (or) Secular trend Secular trend refers to long-term variations where the variable tends to increase or decrease over a long period of time. The steady increase in the cost of living index recorded by the consumer price index is an example of secular trend. Rising trend refers to gradual increase where as declining trend refers to gradual decreases over a period of time. Trend does not include short-term variations. Secular trend is the smooth, regular and long-term movement of a series showing continuous growth. Stagnation or decline over a long period of time. Therefore, the secular trend or long-term variations is the result of long-term force that gradually operate on the time series variable. According to A.E. Waugh, secular trend, is “that irreversible movement which continues, in general, in the same direction for a considerable period of time.” This definition consists of two parts: i. Movement in same direction, which implies that if the values are increasing (or decreasing) in successive periods, the tendency continues; and ii. A considerable period of time. There is no specific period which can be called as a long period. Long periods are different for different situations.

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185 The total period required for emergence of a trend depends on: i. The type of event forming the series. ii. The length of the time unit (year, month, hour, etc.) against which the data are recorded. The total period of time period to know the trend can be as short as a few days or as long as fifty years depending on the nature of the event under consideration. In case of population or output trends long period could be even 10 years but for daily demand trend of vegetable it could be a month. Examples of Secular Trend 1) Long-term changes in productivity 2) Increase in the rate of capital formation 3) Growth of population 4) Technological innovations 5) Transformation in socio-economic set-up 6) 5-years weather pattern described by the Ministry of Agriculture. Objectives of Measuring Trend: there are four main objectives of measuring trend in a time series data: 1) To study past growth or decline of the series. On ignoring the short trem fluctuations, trend describes the basic growth or decline tendency of the data.
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• Spring '12
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