International Relations Notes 4

Transition period can be extremely prolonged does not

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Transition period-can be extremely prolonged, does not need to happen rapidly. Often does take a long time, if its quick and you have a rising state that is dissatisfied, they would expect a full blown war. Often happens, the periods of transitions are prolonged and there is conflict the entire time. Long cycle theory of war-one dominant state(hegemonic period)-usually see pyramids lasting from 60-90 years and on average a 20 year transitory period (in the conflict zone)- transitions looks like it is going to take place, danger zone. If transition happens slower, series of conflicts. War is predicted when-a rising state is taking over a falling state. China and the US? China has amazing GDP growth, between 2020&2050-this transition is going to take place. Because US is going down, China is going up. 2 key points when war is predicted: 1. transition 2.satisfaction? There will be a dissatisfied state.
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