Economic Activity | variation in % Note: Year-on-year and annual average growth rate in %. Source: Chile Central Bank (BCC) -2 0 2 4 6 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Year-on-year Annual average % EMISPDF in-isb_emis from 22.214.171.124 on 2018-06-07 19:51:22 BST. DownloadPDF. Downloaded by in-isb_emis from 126.96.36.199 at 2018-06-07 19:51:22 BST. EMIS. Unauthorized Distribution Prohibited.
FOCUS ECONOMICS Chile LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 56 May 2018 In seasonally-adjusted monthly terms, economic activity rose 0.5% in March from a month earlier, slowing from February’s 0.9% growth. The Central Bank sees GDP expanding between 3.0% and 4.0% in 2018, and between 3.3% and 4.3% in 2019. Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast see the economy growing 3.3% in both 2018 and 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. OUTLOOK | Consumer confidence recovers in April The Adimark GfK consumer confidence index (IPEC, Índice de Percepción de la Economía ) reversed three consecutive months of declines in April, coming in at 51.2 points, up from the previous month’s 50.0 points. As a result, the index moved above the critical 50-point threshold separating optimism from pessimism among Chilean consumers. The reversal of the downward trend comes against the backdrop of moderating inflationary pressures and faster economic activity growth at the end of Q1. Consumer sentiment deteriorated throughout the first quarter after surging to a nearly four-year high in December, as Sebastian Piñera was elected the country’s president. The increase in sentiment in April was largely broad-based, with four out of five sub-indicators showing an improvement from the previous month. Leading the recovery was consumers’ positive outlook regarding economic expectations over the next twelve months and the country’s current economic situation. On the other hand, consumers grew slightly less willing to buy big- ticket household items, marking a fourth consecutive monthly decline this year for the sub-component. Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect private consumption to grow 3.3% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.5% in 2019. OUTLOOK | Business confidence remains broadly stable in April he business confidence index (IMCE, Indicador Mensual de Confianza Empresarial ) published by ICARE and the Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez ticked up marginally from 54.3 points in March to 54.4 points in April. As a result, the index remained comfortably above the crucial 50-point threshold that separates optimistic from pessimistic sentiment among business for the fourth consecutive month. Driving the overall result was the commercial sector index, which remained largely stable and has been above the 60-point mark since January. The industry sector also remained optimistic in April, with sentiment deteriorating only marginally from the previous month. Meanwhile, sentiment in the mining sector showed the biggest improvement from the previous month, likely on the back of fading fears of a trade war between the U.S. and China, two key global consumers of copper—Chile’s main mining export. Lastly, sentiment in
- Summer '18
- Sagar Arora
- Inflation, LatinFocus Consensus Forecast