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L bes covers basic statistics l statistics collecting

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l BES covers basic statistics l Statistics = collecting, analyzing & interpreting data l Statistical information & analysis is pervasive in business & other disciplines l Provides skills for ‘real-world’ decision making l Provides foundation for all 2nd year econometrics subjects l Underpins quantitative analysis across all ASB schools l Applications of interest to accounting, economics, finance, management & marketing students “…the sexy job in the next 10 years will be statisticians. And I’m not kidding.” Hal Varian, Chief [email protected]
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9 Administrative details: Statistical & generic skills developed l By end of BES you should be able to l Identify appropriate statistical methods for describing data & making inferences about population parameters l Apply appropriate statistical methods to samples of data l Use statistical reasoning to aid in problem solving l Use EXCEL to apply appropriate statistical methods l Write a basic business report documenting statistical analyses l Critically evaluate statistical work of others
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10 Statistics in action (SIA) l Case studies using real, contemporary data l Motivating examples in lectures l Material for tutorial problems l Suggest prototype project problems l Examples may include l Baby bonus l Cars in China l Private health insurance l Petrol prices l Migrant wealth l Sydney housing prices l Crime statistics
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11 SIA: Baby bonus l Australian Government introduced a $3000 baby bonus in July 1, 2004 l Increased again July 1, 2006 l Analysis based on Gans & Leigh (2008) l Did women react to this economic incentive? l If so by how much? l Note: change announced 7 weeks before implementation l Data? l Daily births in Australia for 1975-2004 from Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)
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12 SIA: Baby bonus… l Here’s (part of) the data l BUT need descriptive statistics in order to l Summarize data l Facilitate interpretation l Analyse the research question
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13 SIA: Baby bonus… 400 600 800 1000 Number of births per day June 3 June 10 June 17 June 24 July 1 July 7 July 14 July 21 July 28 Panel A: Raw Data 400 500 600 700 800 900 Number of births per day June 3 June 10 June 17 June 24 July 1 July 7 July 14 July 21 July 28 1975-2003 2004 Panel B: Controlling for Day-of-Week Effects Figure 1: The Introduction Effect
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14 SIA: Baby bonus… l What are the key features of these data? l Statistical concepts? l Population l Parameter l Sample l Statistic l Statistical inference
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15 Types of data l A variable is a characteristic of a population or of a sample from a population l We observe values or observations of a variable l A data set contains observations on variables l Variables may be l Discrete or continuous l Discrete example - football scores l Continuous example - time remaining in football game l Quantitative (interval, numerical) or qualitative (nominal, categorical) l Scores & time are quantitative l Gender is qualitative l Ordinal data are qualitative but there is an ordering l This course is poor, good, very good l Standard & Poor’s ratings AAA > AAA- > AA+ > AA …
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16 Types of data… l Type of observation can also be used to classify data l Time series data refer to measurements at different points in time l Eg: SIA Baby bonus births per day l Cross sectional
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