c What is the forecasted temperature for day 8 d Is a smoothing constant of 2

# C what is the forecasted temperature for day 8 d is a

This preview shows page 14 - 18 out of 18 pages.

c.What is the forecasted temperature for day 8?d.Is a smoothing constant of .2 or .3 better for the temperature data? Explain.ANS:a.82, 81.6, 82.08, 82.264, 81.8112, 81.249b.4.033c.81.399
d.A smoothing constant of 0.2 is better because the MSE is lower when 0.2 is used. 16.The yearly series below exhibits a long-term trend. Use the appropriate forecasting technique to produce forecasts for years 11 and 12.YearTime Series Value11202132314841525160617571828190919510205 ANS:T = 115.2 + 9.218182tT11= 216.6T12= 225.82a.Find the four-quarter centered moving averages.b.Plot the series and the moving averages on a graph.c.Compute the seasonal-irregular component.d.Compute the seasonal factors for all four quarters.e.Compute the deseasonalized time series for sales.f.Calculate the linear trend from the deseasonalized sales.g.Forecast the number of units sold in each quarter of year 6.17.The following time series gives the number of units sold during 5 years at a boat dealership.YearQuarterNumber of Units1130022403240429021350230032804320314102400339044104149024503440451051540253035204540
ANS:a.273.75, 287.5, 300, 308.75, 320, 340, 366.25, 391.25, 412.5, 428.75, 441.25, 460, 478.75, 495, 515, 528.75b.c.0.8767, 1.0087, 1.1667, 0.9717, 0.875, 0.9412, 1.1195, 1.0224, 0.9455, 0.9563, 1.1105, 0.9783,0.9191, 1.0303, 1.0485, 1.0024d.1.1132, 0.9954, 0.9056, 0.9858e.269.498, 241.109, 265.018, 294.177, 314.409, 301.386, 309.187, 324.609, 368.308, 401.849, 430.654, 415.906, 440.172, 452.08, 485.866, 517.346, 485.088, 532.449, 574.205, 547.778f.T = 216.2993 + 17.35763tg.646.56, 595.42, 557.42, 623.90 18.Below you are given information on John's income for the past 7 years.YearIncome (In Thousands)115.0216.2317.1418.1518.8619.2720.5 19. You are given the following information on the quarterly profits for Ajax Corporation.YearQuarterQuarterly Profits Yt111502120316041502115021303180
41603117021403200418041200215032304200 20.Below you are given information on crime statistics for Middletown.YearQuarterNumber of Crimes Committed Yt111022032545211023033542531202403354154120250345435The seasonal factors for these data areQuarterSeasonal Factor St1.58921.35131.3354.726

#### You've reached the end of your free preview.

Want to read all 18 pages?