However it is a relevant scenario that is probable 2 Surmount Yes Yes Yes This

However it is a relevant scenario that is probable 2

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However, it is a relevant scenario that is probable. 2. Surmount Yes Yes Yes This scenario is consistent realible and relevant. Despite environmental performance being unpredictable there could be cases in future were environmental performance is controlled. This scenario is highly preferable.
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21 3. Cyclone Yes No Yes This scenario is possible but not a preferred scenario as it is most unfavourable to a company in the agriculture sector. 4. The Stand Yes Yes Yes This scenario has consistency, reliability and relevance making it a plausible scenario. From the above analysis of the four scenarios, the most likely that could materialize is scenario 4. The main reason for this would be that with environmental factors being highly favorable despite there being low political performance the performance of the agriculture sector would be higher than normal. This entails that more farmers will be out looking for innovative farming solutions and AFGRI would be main beneficiary. 4.0 CONCLUSION In conclusion, this paper has undertaken a scenario analysis on AFGRI. The agriculture sector in Zambia has a lot of potential for growth as the country has plenty of natural resources that can enable farmers to farm all year round.
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REFERENCES Bradfield, R., Wright, G., Burt, G., Cairns, G., and Van Der Heijden, K. (2005). The Origins and Evolution of Scenario Techniques in Long Range Business Planning . Futures 37:795- 812. DeJouvenel, H. (2000). A Brief Methodological Guide to Scenario Building. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 65: 37-48. Mietzner, D., and Reger, G. (2005). Advantages and Disadvantages of Scenario Approaches for Strategic Foresight. Int. J. Technology Intelligence and Planning 1:220--239. Peter Duinker and Lorne Greig, (2007) Scenario analysis in environmental impact assessment: Improving explorations of the future. Environmental Impact Assessment Review (2007), 214. Schnaars, S.P. (1987). How to develop and use scenarios. Long Range Plan. 20 : 105- 114. Schoemaker, P.J.H. (1995). Scenario Planning - A Tool for Strategic Thinking . Sloan Manage. Rev. 36: 25-40. Schoemaker, P.J.H. (1993). Multiple Scenario Development - Its Conceptual and Behavioural Foundation . Strategic Manage. J. 14: 193-213. Schoemaker, P.J.H., and Day, G.S. (2009). How to Make Sense of Weak Signals . MIT Sloan Manage. Rev. 50: 81-89. Schwartz, P. (1991). The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World . 1st ed. Doubleday, New York. Varum, C.A., and Melo, C. (2010). Directions in Scenario Planning Literature - A Review of the Past Decades . Futures 42: 355-369.
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