psychexam4.docx

# We may overestimate our contributions because our own

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combined, the answer ended up being more than 100%. We may overestimate our contributions, because our own contributions are more readily available to us You can be very unaware of the chores done by the other o Problem 4 – Class evaluation study:

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Representative heuristics: Judging something by the extent to which it resembles a typical case. (Ex. Being hired not because of your resume, but because the boss glanced at you and thought you resembled other coworkers. The boss relied on resemblance and not probability of how well you’d do the work if hired.) o Problem 1 – Birth order problem: 72 families of six were surveyed, where the exact order was: G B G B B G Participants were asked what’s the estimate of the number of families surveyed where the order was: B G B B B B Statistically, both birth orders are equally likely but since the ratio is different, the second order is judged to be less likely The ratio does not represent the population o Problem 2 – Gambler’s fallacy & hot hand fallacy: The gambler’s fallacy is the idea that during a losing streak, it’s likely that the gamblers luck will turn around and they’ll start winning The hot hand fallacy is the idea that when on a winning streak, the streak is more likely to continue (based on the idea that having already won a number improves the probability of winning the next) o Problem 3 – Generalization from a single case to the population/prison guard study: This is an error that will make you believe the entire category will have the same properties as one individual Participants were shown where a prison guard discussed his job; in
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