TWENTIES for IEEE ISGT Gothenburg 2010

This model was developed by rte to tackle two

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This model was developed by RTE to tackle two subjects of growing concern for TSO’s, especially in the light of the responsibilities that the 3 rd energy package puts on them at the prospective stage: on the one hand, assessment of the fundamentals of the economic behavior of the power system (actual contribution of each kind of generation technology to the energy mix, savings in fuel costs to expect from grid reinforcements, etc.) ; on the other hand, assessment of the risk of power shortage that the system may have to face if it were to meet adverse generation conditions (low availability of thermal plants, windless episode, draught, etc.) at times of very high demand (e.g. winter cold spell during week-days). The first field of application of ANTARES is therefore market-oriented, while the latter is more pertaining to regulatory concerns (Security of Supply -SoS). Being a Monte-Carlo sequential simulator, the way the tool proceeds is to go through a large number of yearly scenarios made of consistent sets of 8760-hour time-series (wind power, availability of thermal plants, level of demand, etc.), while determining the overall least-cost trajectory for the whole interconnected system (unit commitment and optimal dispatch for every generation park). The simulation process involves therefore two very different stages : a) Generation of Time-series for all of the variables of the techno-economic problem, with a resolution of one hour. b) Determination of the economic optimum for the whole system, with a resolution of one hour and within a time-frame of one day to one week. Unlike that of thermal power plants availability (obtained through a classical two-state Markovian model), the generation of Time-series for intermittent generation relies on the use of correlated diffusion processes. The parameters of the stochastic differential equation defining each process are set so as to make it stationary, with a given desired marginal law and exponential autocorrelation function. For the purpose of this European project studies, the capabilities of the built-in Time-series generator of ANTARES have been extended so as to make it possible to simulate stationary processes whose marginal law is of the Weibull type, which is widely acknowledged as a fitting distribution for the modulus of wind speed in many locations and heights. Once generated, such wind speed times-series may be rightly converted into wind power time-series, using the ad hoc diagrams of the local machines. Within the project framework it will be possible to put these simulation capabilities at work on many-fold scenarios aiming at assessing the economic synergies between off-shore DC grid development, off-shore wind generation and interconnected on-shore systems. The matter of the modeling of the spatial correlations between the different variables of the problem (especially those of the different interconnected wind fields) and of their influence on the economic behavior of the system is likely to be a cornerstone of the studies, from which both theoretical and practical results of interest are expected.
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  • Spring '10
  • K.BELL
  • Electromagnet, Electric power transmission, hvdc grid

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