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IIf there are no agglomeration externalities then this location will suffer fromthis removal.IBut if there are agglomeration externalities then this location might notsuffer much at all. Its future success is assured through the logic of multipleequilibria. (This is typically referred to as ‘path dependence’.)Econ 280D. Spring 2019. C. GaubertLecture 1Agglomeration: Evidence17 / 59
Bleakley and Lin (2012)IHow important is path dependence empirically?Econ 280D. Spring 2019. C. GaubertLecture 1Agglomeration: Evidence18 / 59
Portage sites have much higher population densityFIGUREVPortage and Population Density, 1790–2000This graph displays estimates of equation (3) from repeated fixed-effectsEcon 280D. Spring 2019. C. GaubertLecture 1Agglomeration: Evidence19 / 59
Fall line and city sizeFIGUREIIFall-Line Cities from Alabama to North CarolinaThe map in the upper panel shows the contemporary distribution of economicactivity across the southeastern United States, measured by the 2003 nighttimelights layer from NationalAtlas.gov. The nighttime lights are used to present anearly continuous measure of present-day economic activity at a high spatialfrequency. The fall line (solid) is digitized fromPhysical Divisions of the UnitedStates, produced by the U.S. Geological Survey. Major rivers (dashed gray) arefrom NationalAtlas.gov, based on data produced by the United States GeologicalSurvey. Contemporary fall-line cities are labeled in the lower panel.Econ 280D. Spring 2019. C. GaubertLecture 1Agglomeration: Evidence20 / 59
Agglomeration today, at the fall line (vs along the river ingeneral)FIGUREIIIPopulation Density in 2000 along Fall-Line RiversThese graphs display contemporary population density along fall-line rivers.We select census 2000 tracts whose centroids lie within 50 miles along fall-linerivers; the horizontal axis measures distance to the fall line, where the fall lineis normalized to zero, and the Atlantic Ocean lies to the left. In Panel A, thesedistances are calculated in miles. In Panel B, these distances are normalized foreach river relative to the river mouth or the river source. The raw population dataare then smoothed via Stata’s lowess procedure, with bandwidths of 0.3 (Panel A)or 0.1 (Panel B).Econ 280D. Spring 2019. C. GaubertLecture 1Agglomeration: Evidence21 / 59