I If there are no agglomeration externalities then this location will suffer

I if there are no agglomeration externalities then

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I If there are no agglomeration externalities then this location will suffer from this removal. I But if there are agglomeration externalities then this location might not suffer much at all. Its future success is assured through the logic of multiple equilibria. (This is typically referred to as ‘path dependence’.) Econ 280D. Spring 2019. C. Gaubert Lecture 1 Agglomeration: Evidence 17 / 59
Bleakley and Lin (2012) I How important is path dependence empirically? Econ 280D. Spring 2019. C. Gaubert Lecture 1 Agglomeration: Evidence 18 / 59
Portage sites have much higher population density F IGURE V Portage and Population Density, 1790–2000 This graph displays estimates of equation ( 3 ) from repeated fixed-effects Econ 280D. Spring 2019. C. Gaubert Lecture 1 Agglomeration: Evidence 19 / 59
Fall line and city size F IGURE II Fall-Line Cities from Alabama to North Carolina The map in the upper panel shows the contemporary distribution of economic activity across the southeastern United States, measured by the 2003 nighttime lights layer from NationalAtlas.gov. The nighttime lights are used to present a nearly continuous measure of present-day economic activity at a high spatial frequency. The fall line (solid) is digitized from Physical Divisions of the United States , produced by the U.S. Geological Survey. Major rivers (dashed gray) are from NationalAtlas.gov, based on data produced by the United States Geological Survey. Contemporary fall-line cities are labeled in the lower panel. Econ 280D. Spring 2019. C. Gaubert Lecture 1 Agglomeration: Evidence 20 / 59
Agglomeration today, at the fall line (vs along the river in general) F IGURE III Population Density in 2000 along Fall-Line Rivers These graphs display contemporary population density along fall-line rivers. We select census 2000 tracts whose centroids lie within 50 miles along fall-line rivers; the horizontal axis measures distance to the fall line, where the fall line is normalized to zero, and the Atlantic Ocean lies to the left. In Panel A, these distances are calculated in miles. In Panel B, these distances are normalized for each river relative to the river mouth or the river source. The raw population data are then smoothed via Stata’s lowess procedure, with bandwidths of 0.3 (Panel A) or 0.1 (Panel B). Econ 280D. Spring 2019. C. Gaubert Lecture 1 Agglomeration: Evidence 21 / 59
Discussion I

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