4th Ed. PMBOK Chapter 11 Risk Flashcards

Terms Definitions
What are the 4 basic ways to deal with risk?
1. Avoid - Prevent
2. Mitigate - Lessen
3.Transfer - Pay someone else to accept it. ex. insurance
4. Accept - Passive is leaving the team to deal with risks, Active is establishing contingency reserve, including amounts of time, money or resources to handle the risks
What are the 6 processes in Risk Management?
1. Plan Risk Management - develop plan for how to deal with risk
2. Identify Risks - gather the team and come up with a list of risks
3. Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis - determine probability and impact of each risk
4. Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis - assign numerical values for the probability and impact of each risk
5. Plan Risk Responses - plan responses to each risk
6. Monitor and Control Risk Responses - monitor discovered risks, look for new ones
What are the 6 inputs to Plan Risk Management?
1. OPA
2. EEP
3. Cost Management Plan
4. Schedule Management Plan
5. Communications Management Plan
6. Project Scope Statement
What is the tool used for Plan Risk Management?
1. Plan meetings and Analysis - Do all the risk planning by meeting with the team. Keep meeting with the team throughout the project to stay on top of risks.
What is the output for Plan Risk Management?
1. Risk Management Plan - guide to identifying and analyzing risks on your project. It tells you who identifies and analyzes the risk, how they do it, and how often it happens.
What are some useful parts in the Risk Management Plan for managing risk?
1. Categories - use to classify risk. Some are technical, others are external like weather.
2. Risk Breakdown Structure - looks like WBS, but breaks risk into categories.
3. Probability and impact guidelines - help to figure out how big a risk's impact is. Impact tells you how much damage the risk will cause to your project. minimal - severe.
4. Scale - figure out probability of risk, from likely to not.
Describe Identify Risks
In Identify Risks the idea is to figure out every possible risk that might affect the project.
What are the 6 inputs to Identify Risks?
1, Cost and Schedule Management plan - includes activity cost estimates and activity duration estimates which are also inputs
2. Risk Management Plan
3. PMP
4. Scope Baseline
5. OPA
6. EPP
What are some informational gathering tools used for Identify Risks?
1. Brainstorming - crank out ideas with team
2. Interviews - find everyone with an opinion about what could cause trouble on a project
3. The Delphi Technique - send anonymous surveys to expects
4. Root cause identification - analyzing each risk and figuring out whats actually behind it. Falling off cliff and having tent blown away are two separate risks but caused by the same thing.. WIND
What are some additional tools used in Identify Risks?
1. Document Reviews - look at plans, requirements, and documents from OPA
2. Assumptions Analysis - look over the project assumptions.
3. Checklist analysis - using checklists specifically developed to help find risk
4. SWOT analysis - analyze Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats. Brainstorm strengths and weaknesses, then examine strengths to find opportunities and weaknesses to come up with threats.
5. Diagramming techniques - Ishikawa or fishbone diagrams from Quality Management to help find the root cause of a risk. Analysis systems to spot complexity
What is the output in Identify Risks?
1. Updates to Risk Register - the most important part of risk management. Its a list of all the risks and some initial ideas about how you'd respond to them
What are some good places to look for risk?
1. Resources - may not be available when you need it
2. Critical Path - any delay will postpone the project
3. Assumptions
4. External factors - new rule, regulation, law, union, price. etc
Describe Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis?
Where you look at each risk and figure out how likely it is and how big its impact will be.
What are the inputs to Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis?
1. Organizational Process Assets
2. Risk Register
3. Risk Management Plan
4. Project Scope Statement - Does the project use new technology? Is it complex?
What are some tools used in Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis?
1. Risk data quality assessment - making sure that the information you're using is accurate.
2. Risk Urgency assessment - checking out how soon your're going to need to take care of a particular risk
3. Expert Judgement
4. Risk Probability and Impact Assessment - How likely and how impactful each risk is
5. Probability and impact matrix - All of the risks are plotted out with values
6. Risk categorization - grouping risks different to come up with a better strategy
What is the output used in Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis?
1. Updated Risk Register
Describe Quantitative Risk Analysis?
Place numbers on the probability and impact of each risk
What are the 6 inputs to Quantitative Risk Analysis?
1. OPA
2. Risk Register
3. Cost Mangement Plan
4. Risk Management Plan
5. Schedule Management Plan
6. Project Scope Statement
What are some tools used in Quantitative Risk Analysis?
1. Interviewing - get reasons, ranges of probability and impact, 3 point estimates
2. Probability Distribution - Look at time and cost estimate ranges in terms of statistical distribution
3. Expert Judgement
4. Sensitivity Analysis - isolate variables, like rain or wind damage. Use Tornado diagram and assume other data will stay constant
5. Expected Monetary value analysis - examine the costs of all of the paths you might take through the project and assign money value. Decision tree analysis
6. Modeling and Distribution - run project through modeling programs. Monte Carlo Analysis runs simulations with randomized risks and probabilities of them occuring
What is the output in quantitative risk analysis?
Updates to the risk register
What are the inputs to Plan Risk Response?
1. Risk Register
2. Risk Management Plan
What are the 4 strategies for responding to positive risks?
1. Exploit - Do everything to take advantage of an opportunity
2. Enhance - Make an opportunity more probably by influencing its triggers
3. Share - Harder to take advantage of opportunity, get another company to share it
4. Accept - Sometimes falls in lap, so accept it
How can response planning find even more risks?
1. Secondary Risks - risks that come from a response to another risk. Dig a trench to stop landslides and someone falls in trench.
2. Residual Risks - remain after risk responses get implemented. Even though tent is reinforced, still a chance it could get blown away
What is the 3 outputs of Plan Risk Response?
1. Update Risk Register - add risk responses
2. PMP Updates - update so that Change control can include the risk responses
3. Risk Related contract decisions
Describe Monitor and Control Risks
Revisiting the status of the projects risks. Should be done at every status meeting.
What are the inputs to Monitor and Control Risks?
1. Risk Register
2. PMP
3. Work Performance Info
4. Performance reports - Both reviewed to see if risks are happening
What are some tools used in Monitor and Control Risks?
1. Risk Reassessment - Regularly scheduled reassessment meetings to info and re validate risk register
2. Variance and trend analysis - Comparing the actual performance to the plan. Look for trends, patterns, etc
3. Reserve Analysis - keeping tabs on money reserved for risks
4. Risk Audits - When an outside party comes in and looks at risks
5. Technical performance measurement - comparing the performance of the project to plan
6. Status meetings - have risk review on the agenda
What are the outputs to Monitor and Control risks?
1. Change Requests
2. Risk Register Updates
3. OPA updates
4. PMP updates
5. Project document updates - always an out from a Monitoring and Controlling process
What is a trigger for a risk?
A trigger is an indication that a risk has occurred or is about to occur. Sometimes called risk symptoms or warning signs. Ex. A thunderstorm is a trigger for lightning damage. Unlikely to have lightning damage without a thunderstorm.
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