ESTIMATION METHODS FOR
ANIMAL POPULATIONS
Estimating Abundance of Closed
Populations Using Radio
Telemetry and Resighting Data
DECISION TREE: POPULATION ASSESSMENT*
Focus on estimates
of N that use
information from
Lincoln-Petersen
types of sampling
Absol

ESTIMATION METHODS FOR
ANIMAL POPULATIONS
Estimating Nest Success and
Survival from Telemetry
Nest Monitoring and Telemetry
Studies
Binomial Model
Calculate an overall probability of survival based on
the total number of successful individuals recorded

Dynamics of Harvested
Populations
Effect of Harvesting on Vital Rates
reduce density
increase fertility
increase juvenile survival
reduce adult mortality
The Concept of Sustained Yield
Sustained Yield = harvesting at a level that
can be taken year af

ESTIMATION METHODS FOR
ANIMAL POPULATIONS
Estimating Nest Success and
Survival from Telemetry
Nest Monitoring and Telemetry
Studies
Known fates
Outcomes of samples are known
Nest Monitoring
Nest success
Telemetry
Survival
How do these types of stud

MODELS WITH
STAGE STRUCTURE
Lefkovitch Matrix Formulation
Assumption of Age-based
Demography
The Leslie method (and the Lotka life-table method)
assume that factors other than age (e.g., size or
developmental stage) are irrelevant to an individual's
demog

Population Viability Analysis
Population Dynamics
&
Conservation
General Goals
Minimize Risk of Extinction
Attain Desired Abundance
Strategies
Habitat Acquisition
Regulation of Human Disturbance
Control of Exotics
Augmenting Populations
Captive Breed

ESTIMATION METHODS FOR
ANIMAL POPULATIONS
Estimating Abundance of Closed
Populations Using MarkRelease-Recapture Methods
Part 2
MRR Analysis: 3-sample example
1
2
Recaptured
Caught,
Marked, and
Released
New
Captures
marked and
released
Not
Recaptured
3
Re

ESTIMATION METHODS FOR
ANIMAL POPULATIONS
Estimating Abundance with
Distance-Based Methods
Detection
Probability ()< 1
DECISION TREE: POPULATION ASSESSMENT*
Absolute Estimate of N Needed?
Indices
Level of Observability ( )?
=1
Complete
Census
<1
Sample o

ESTIMATION METHODS FOR
ANIMAL POPULATIONS
Combining Closed and Open MRR
Models: The Robust Design
The Robust Design for
Capture-Recapture Studies
Rationale: Abundance estimates from Jolly-Seber
model do not adequately handle trap response or
heterogeneity

Metapopulations
Population is a collection of individuals,
each with a finite lifetime.
Metapopulation is a collection of
interacting populations, each with a finite
lifetime (time to extinction).
Spatial Structure
A. Spatially Implicit Models
Island Bi

Multi-species population
growth models
Competition and Predator-Prey dynamics
Lotka-Volterra Models
I. Interspecific Competition
Interactions in which two or more species negatively
influence each others population growth rates and
depress each others po

Metapopulations
Population is a collection of individuals,
each with a finite lifetime.
Metapopulation is a collection of
interacting populations, each with a finite
lifetime (time to extinction).
Spatial Structure
A. Spatially Implicit Models
Island Bi

ESTIMATION METHODS FOR
ANIMAL POPULATIONS
Measuring Indices to Abundance
Indices to Population Abundance
Examples
1. Track Counts (e.g., ungulates, carnivores)
Typically along dirt roads (or snow cover) following clearing to
remove old tracks
2. Counts of

What we know is not much.
What we do not know is
immense.
P. S. LaPlace
Sampling Designs
for
Estimating Abundance Based on
Counts
birth
birth
Calves
Juveniles
Adults
birth
birth
birth
Wet season
1960
survival
Dry season
1961
birth
birth
Wet season
1961
bi

MODELS OF
DENSITY-INDEPENDENT
POPULATION CHANGE
Chpt 8.1
Objectives
Introduce you to the exponential (density
independent) model of population growth
Examine the continuous and discrete
forms of the model
Examine the assumptions of the
exponential mode

Lecture Objective
Provide an understanding of scientific
methodology, especially within the context
of ecology.
Clarify the roles of theory, hypotheses,
statistics, and formal logic in ecological
sciences.
Scientific Method - Overview
Rooted in observa

ESTIMATION METHODS FOR
ANIMAL POPULATIONS
Estimating Survival and
Movement from
Capture-Recapture Data
Part II
Cormack-Jolly-Seber Model
Reduced-Parameter
Models
General timedependence
(separate and
p for each
occasion)
Reducedparameters
Cormack-Jolly-Seb

ESTIMATION METHODS FOR
ANIMAL POPULATIONS
Estimating Abundance and
Recruitment from
Capture-Recapture Data
Superpopulation
Population
Group of organisms of
the same species
occupying a particular
space at a particular
time.
Superpopulation
Groups of o

Stochasticity
Deterministic vs Stochastic
Deterministic models specify conditions
leading to an exact outcome based on the
parameters of the model
Stochastic models population
parameters vary according to some kind of
a frequency distribution that can b

"Life's most important
questions are, for the
most part, nothing but
probability problems."
P. S. LaPlace
ESTIMATION METHODS FOR
ANIMAL POPULATIONS
Estimating Abundance of Closed
Populations Using Mark-ReleaseRecapture Methods
Part I
DECISION TREE: POPULA

MODELS WITH
AGE STRUCTURE
Leslie Matrix Formulation
Demography
The study of population growth with age
structure
Life Table (Lotka Formulation)
A schedule of age-specific deaths. Theoretically important,
because the original formulations of life (and fert

ESTIMATION METHODS FOR
ANIMAL POPULATIONS
Estimating Abundance of
Exploited Populations
DECISION TREE: POPULATION ASSESSMENT*
Absolute Estimate of N Needed?
Indices
Level of Observability ( )?
=1
Complete
Census
<1
Sample of Counts
Census on
Sample Plots

ESTIMATION METHODS FOR
ANIMAL POPULATIONS
Estimating Survival and
Movement from
Capture-Recapture Data
DECISION TREE: POPULATION ASSESSMENT*
Absolute Estimate of N Needed?
Indices
Level of Observability ( )?
=1
Complete
Census
<1
Sample of Counts
Census o

ESTIMATION METHODS FOR
ANIMAL POPULATIONS
Estimating Survival from
Band Recoveries
Estimating Survival from BandRecovery Data
Useful for populations in which animals are
tagged,
released
and subsequently are either
wld.fwc.state.fl.us/duck/
found de

MODELS WITH
AGE STRUCTURE
Life Tables and
Fertility Schedules
Life Table
A definition:
Survival and reproductive schedule of an organism,
organized into a tabular format
Types of fecundity schedules (examples):
- semelparous vs. iteroparous
- annual
vs. p

ESTIMATING OCCUPANCY
Now you see it!
Now you dont!
DECISION TREE: POPULATION ASSESSMENT*
Focus on estimates
of N that use
information from
Lincoln-Petersen
types of sampling
Absolute Estimate of N Needed?
Indices
Level of Observability ( )?
=1
Complete
Ce

Inferential Statistics and
Estimation
To call in the statistician after
the experiment is done may be
no more than asking him to
perform a postmortem
examination: he may be able to
say what the experiment died o
f.
Indian Statistical Congress, Sankhya, c