Decision Making under Uncertainty
Simulation decisions in the presence of uncertainty.
Why not plug in the expected values of the random variables?
Example
You pick two people from a large population at random and
compute the ratio between the ages of

1. Random Variables
Suppose we are to perform a random experiment whose
outcome cannot be predicted in advance.
The set of all possible outcomes of the random experiment is
called the sample space.
1. If the experiment is tossing a die,
2. If the experi

Simulation Modeling and Analysis (ORIE 4580/5580/5581)
Week 10: ProModel Basic Elements,Variables, Condence Interval, and COMBINE Command (10/26/10 - 10/28/10)
1
Announcement and Agenda
HW 6 is available on Blackboard and is due by 11am on 10/28 HW 7 wi

Simulation Modeling and Analysis (ORIE 4580/5580)
Week 9: Introduction to Discrete-Event Simulation and Single-Server Queue (10/21/10)
1
Announcement and Agenda
HW6 is available on Blackboard and will be due by 11am on 10/28 On Q4 in HW6, youre asked to

Simulation Modeling and Analysis (ORIE 4580/5580/5581)
Week 8: Wrap-up Parameter Estimation (10/14/10)
1
Announcement and Agenda
For ALL Students: There will be a prelim at 7:30pm on Tuesday, October 19 at G01 Uris Hall.
Sample prelim is available on Bl

Simulation Modeling and Analysis (ORIE 4580/5580/5581)
Week 7: Input Modeling and Parameter Estimation (10/05/10 - 10/07/10)
1
Announcement and Agenda
HW 4 is available on Blackboard and it is due by 11am on 10/7 HW 5 will be available on Thursday (10/7

Simulation Modeling and Analysis (ORIE 4580/5580/5581)
Week 6: Generating Samples of Poisson Processes, Normal Random Variables, and Introduction to Input Modeling (09/28/10 - 09/30/10)
1
Announcement and Agenda
HW 4 is available on Blackboard and it wi

Simulation Modeling and Analysis (ORIE 4580/5580/5581)
Week 5: Generating Samples of Arbitrary Random Variables (09/21/10 - 09/23/10)
1
Announcement and Agenda
For HW 3 Q 2(d), the function =CHIINV(p, k) returns the (1-p)-quantile of the chi-square distri

Simulation Modeling and Analysis (ORIE 4580/5580/5581)
Week 4: Generating Samples of Uniformly Distributed Random Variables (09/14/10 - 09/16/10)
1
Announcement and Agenda
HW 3 is available on Blackboard and will be due by 11am on 9/23. For ORIE 5581 St

Simulation Modeling and Analysis (ORIE 4580/5580/5581)
Week 1: Introduction to Simulation and Course Logistics (08/26/2010)
1
Simulation Modeling and Analysis ORIE 4580/5580 (All Semester) Monte Carlo Simulation ORIE 5581 (Half Semester: Until 10/19)
2
Ag

Simulation Modeling and Analysis (ORIE 4580/5580/5581)
Week 2: Review of Probability and Statistics (08/31/10 - 09/02/10)
1
Announcement and Agenda
Recitations begin this Friday (9/3)
There will be no recitation on Monday (9/6) because of Labor Day. You

Simulation Modeling and Analysis (ORIE 4580/5580/5581)
Week 3: Simulation in Excel and Analysis of Capacity Allocation Game (09/07/10 - 09/02/10)
1
Announcement and Agenda
HW 1 is due this Thursday (9/9) at 11am in the HW dropbox
IMPORTANT: Please write

1. Random Variables
Suppose we are to perform a random experiment whose
outcome cannot be predicted in advance.
The set of all possible outcomes of the random experiment is
called the sample space.
1. If the experiment is tossing a die,
2. If the experi