CEE 5980 Introduction to Decision Analysis
Assignment # 1 Due Sept 11
REED 1
Exercise #1: (20 points)
There has been more than 50 years of work in the area of decision analysis. Decision analysis encompasses a
broad suite of technical foci including exper
P. M. REED 1
CEE 5980 Introduction to Decision Analysis
Tu-Th 10:10am-11:25am
B14 Hollister Hall
INSTRUCTOR:
Dr. Patrick Reed
OFFICE:
211 Hollister Hall
TELEPHONE:
255-2024
EMAIL:
patrick.reed@cornell.edu
TEACHING ASSISTANT: Calvin Whealton (caw324@cornel
CEE 5980 Introduction to Decision Analysis
Assignment # 3 Due Oct 9
REED 1
Exercise #1: (28 points)
Lets revisit the Expected Value vs Fun example in Lecture 8. In that example, there was a mapping
of outcomes to percent fun. Using the two alternative map
Basic
Probability
Concepts
Notes by P. Reed
Cornell University
Lecture # 3 in CEE 5980
1
Now what have we talked about?
2
Time value of money?
Wicked problems?
Typology of MCDM problems?
Normative decision analysis?
Descriptive decision analysis?
Construc
Common
Distributions
& Bayes
Theorem
Notes by P. Reed
Cornell University
Lecture # 5 in CEE 5980
1
Now what have we talked about?
What does traditional correlation imply?
How does nonlinearity impact information
data requirements?
Are statistical model
Generating
Alternatives
without
Simulation
Notes by P. Reed
Cornell University
Lecture # 11 in CEE 5980
1
Now what have we talked about?
So explain the difference in different a priori vs
a posteriori decision analysis methods.
Where do decision trees f
A Priori vs A
Posteriori
Decision
Making
Notes by P. Reed
Cornell University
Lecture # 10 in CEE 5980
1
Now what have we talked about?
What are the dominance concepts we covered?
How are they similar? Different?
How can you represent Pareto dominance
g
Generating
Alternatives
with Simulation:
Computational
Discovery
Notes by P. Reed
Cornell University
Lecture # 12 in CEE 5980
1
Now what have we talked about?
What are some blocks that negatively impact our
development of alternatives?
What are properti
General Aviation
Aircraft Product
Family Design
Example &
Discussion
Notes by P. Reed
Cornell University
Lecture # 13 in CEE 5980
1
Now what have we talked about?
So what is a complex engineered system?
What isnt?
When is computational generation of
alt
Decision
Trees
Examples &
Dominance
Concepts
Notes by P. Reed
Cornell University
Lecture # 8 in CEE 5980
1
Now what have we talked about?
What are decision paths? Decision strategies?
Risk profiles?
What do you need to know to use a decision
tree?
2
Ke
CEE 5980 Introduction to Decision Analysis
Assignment # 3 Due Oct 6
REED 1
Exercise #1: (16 points)
Revisit the more complex decision tree from part (c) of Exercise #2 in Assignment #2. For each pair of
decisions (experiment and conventional design, exper
CEE 5980 Introduction to Decision Analysis
Assignment # 2 Due September 22
REED
Exercise #1: (7 points)
A lie detector has a hit rate of 80% and a false alarm rate of 50%. That is, the probability of the machine giving a positive result
(indicating LIE!)
Quiz 3
CE 5980
25 pts. Total
Name:_
[Question 1 had a typo, so everyone received full credit for it.]
1. If strategy 1 stochastically dominates strategy 2 for a maximization problem, then (2 pts)
a. The worst payoff of strategy 2 is at least as good as th
Quiz 2
CE 5980
25 pts. Total
Name:_ _
[Answers in bold, no partial credit for multiple choice.]
1. Probability density functions (2 pts)
A. can take positive and negative values.
B. must have total area of 1.
C. are symmetric.
D. must have defined varianc
Exercise #1: (7 points)
The incidence of SIDA, a deadly disease, among a certain population is 0.01%.
Individuals, randomly selected from this population are submitted to a SIDA test whose
accuracy is 99% both ways. That is to say, the proportion of posit
Making
Sequential
Choices
Decision
Trees
Notes by P. Reed
Cornell University
Lecture # 7 in CEE 5980
1
Now what have we talked about?
What are the assumptions implicit to using
decision trees?
How does Bayes Thm relate to decision
trees?
When would you
Time Value of
Money
Mitigation vs
Adaptation?
Notes by P. Reed
Cornell University
Lecture # 4 in CEE 5980
1
Now what did we talk about last time?
2
Values vs objectives?
Fundamental vs Means Objectives?
Wicked problems?
Typology of MCDM problems?
Construc
Multiobjective
Decisions:
Pareto
Dominance
Notes by P. Reed
Cornell University
Lecture # 9 in CEE 5980
1
Now what have we talked about?
Deterministic dominance?
Stochastic dominance?
How do we handle multiple objectives in
Decision Trees?
What assumpt
MakingSequential
ChoicesDecision
Trees
NotesbyP.Reed
CornellUniversity
Lecture#7inCEE5980
1
Nowwhathavewetalkedabout?
2
What are the assumptions implicit to using
decision trees?
How does Bayes Thm relate to decision
trees?
When would you apply decision t
Introduction:
WhatisDecision
Analysis?
Notes by P. Reed
Cornell University
1
KeyTopics
Overview course
Provide historical perspective on origins of
decision analysis
Distinguishing normative and descriptive
approaches to decision analysis
Use discuss
Generating
Alternatives
without
Simulation
NotesbyP.Reed
CornellUniversity
Lecture#11inCEE5980
1
Nowwhathavewetalkedabout?
2
So explain the difference in different a priori vs
a posteriori decision analysis methods.
Where do decision trees fit?
Relative s
Structuring
Decisions
DecisionTrees
NotesbyP.Reed
CornellUniversity
Lecture#6inCEE5980
1
Nowwhathavewetalkedabout?
2
What does a Gaussian distribution imply
about extreme events?
How much knowledge does a normal
distribution imply? Uniform distribution?
H
DecisionTrees
Examples&
Dominance
Concepts
NotesbyP.Reed
CornellUniversity
Lecture#8inCEE5980
1
Nowwhathavewetalkedabout?
2
What are decision paths? Decision strategies?
Risk profiles?
What do you need to know to use a decision
tree?
KeyTopicsThisLecture
DecisionTrees
Examples&
Dominance
Concepts
NotesbyP.Reed
CornellUniversity
Lecture#8inCEE5980
1
Nowwhathavewetalkedabout?
2
What are decision paths? Decision strategies?
Risk profiles?
What do you need to know to use a decision
tree?
KeyTopicsThisLecture
Common
Distributions&
BayesTheorem
NotesbyP.Reed
CornellUniversity
Lecture#5inCEE5980
1
Nowwhathavewetalkedabout?
2
What does traditional correlation imply?
How does nonlinearity impact information
data requirements?
Are statistical models quantitative or
Multiobjective
Decisions:Pareto
Dominance
NotesbyP.Reed
CornellUniversity
Lecture#9inCEE5980
1
Nowwhathavewetalkedabout?
2
Deterministic dominance?
Stochastic dominance?
How do we handle multiple objectives in
Decision Trees?
What assumptions did we have
Structuring
Decisions
Decision
Trees
Notes by P. Reed
Cornell University
Lecture # 6 in CEE 5980
1
Now what have we talked about?
What does a Gaussian distribution imply
about extreme events?
How much knowledge does a normal
distribution imply? Uniform