Table of Contents
1. INTRODUCTION TO RANDOM VARIABLES THEORY. 7
1.1. Nature and purpose of mathematical statistics. 7
1.2. Tabular and graphical representation of samples. 7
1.3. Sample mean and sample variance. 10
1.4. Random Experiments, Outcomes, Event
Since an outcome is a subset of S, it is an event, but a rather special one, sometimes called an
elementary event. Similarly, the entire space S is another special event.
A sample space S and the events of an experiment can be represented graphically by a
Cumulative relative frequency
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
420
2
x , daN/cm
Figure 1.2. Histogram of cumulative relative frequencies
If a certain numerical value does not occur in the sample, its freq
Foreword
The lectures on Structural Reliability and Risk Analysis at the Technical University of Civil
Engineering of Bucharest commenced in early 1970s as an elective course taught by late
Professor Dan Ghiocel and by Professor Dan Lungu in the Buildings
~
~
~
~
f ( A B ) = f ( A) + f ( B ) f ( A B )
(1.5)
~
If A and B are mutually exclusive, then f ( A B ) = 0 , and
~
~
~
f ( A B )= f ( A)+ f ( B )
These formulas are rather obvious from the Venn diagram in Fig. 1.4.
(1.6)
1.5. Probability
Experience show
explicitly. Grouping should be done so that only unessential data are eliminated. Unnecessary
complications in the later use of a grouped sample are avoided by obeying the following rules:
1.All the class intervals should have the same length.
2.The class
International Conference on Earthquake Loss
International Symposium on Seismic Risk
Estimation and Risk Reduction,
Reduction The JICA Technical Cooperation
Bucharest, Oct. 24-26, 2002
Project, Bucharest, April 26-27, 2007
The international conferences abo
Often it is required to find the probability of an event B if it is known that an event A has
occurred. This probability is called the conditional probability of B given A and it is denoted
by P(B | A). In this case A serves as a new (reduced) sample spac
1. INTRODUCTION TO RANDOM VARIABLES THEORY
1.1. Nature and purpose of mathematical statistics
In engineering statistics one is concerned with methods for designing and evaluating
experiments to obtain information about practical problems, for example, the
listed in the second column of Table 1.2. It indicates how often the corresponding value x
occurs in the sample and is called absolute frequency of that value x in the sample. Dividing it
by the size n of the sample one obtains the relative frequency in t
Technical University of Civil Engineering of Bucharest
Reinforced Concrete Department
STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY AND RISK ANALYSIS
Lecture notes
Radu VCREANU
Alexandru ALDEA
Dan LUNGU
2007
Structural Reliability and Risk Analysis Lecture Notes
1
5. INTRODUCTION TO STOCHASTIC PROCESSES. 89
5.1. Background . 89
5.2. Average properties for describing internal structure of a stochastic process . 90
5.3. Main simplifying assumptions . 91
5.4. Probability distribution. 95
5.5. Statistical sampling cons
xiv
PREFACE
Chinas financial landscape remains state dominated. While economists in the West before the financial crisis believed that the best way
to prosperity is to reduce government involvement in the economy and
let the private sector do the work, CD
x
PREFACE
was one of the founding fathers of the Peoples Republic of China. His
company was banker to China Inc.
Not the World Bank. That Washington-based product of Pax
Americana had a loan book only a fraction of the size of this mans
company, the world
10
CHINAS SUPERBANK
British citizen, Huang Qifan, a portly man with pockmarked cheeks,
arrived in the hilly southwest city that sits aside a muddy stretch in the
Yangtze in 2001 to be deputy mayor. He had previous experience
creating the Pudong district i
Preface
xv
inadequate compensation. The system has helped to send Chinas
income-inequality level so high that the government has stopped
publishing the globally recognized income-inequality index. No less an
authority than former premier Zhu Rongji, speak
12
CHINAS SUPERBANK
in a March 2006 speech.18 Yet that did not happen. By 2011, the citys
financing vehicles had debts of over 157 billion yuan, as GDP growth
that year reached 16.4 percent.19 In May 2012, CDB and its chairman,
Chen Yuan, pledged further
6
CHINAS SUPERBANK
The bank was simply the best match for LGFVs, Gao wrote. And after
the chaos of the early 1990s, the central government needed and began
to take control of Chinas economy.
The new urban focus in China in the late 1990s unleashed a wave
vi
CONTENTS
Developing a Slogan
Beating the Commercial Banks
Gao Jian: Creating a Market for Risk-Free Bonds
The West Self-Destructs: The Financial Crisis
Moving Beyond Wall Street
Chapter 3
Chapter 4
Chapter 5
Nothing to Lose but Our Chains:
China Develo
xvi
PREFACE
We did this without taking any time off from our daily routines,
attempting to integrate our daily reporting with our book project. It was
not easy, but it was worth it, because when we say CDB is the worlds most
influential bank, we mean it.
Preface
H
ugo Chvez, resplendent in crisply pressed fatigues and paratrooper boots with red shoelaces, had a very special guest.
Meeting him that mid-September day in Caracas was the
worlds most powerful banker, who had lent Chvezs government at
least $40
Let 10,000 Projects Bloom
25
organic growth to build out its skyline. That includes a 1,930-foot-high
tower, taller than the 1,770-foot-high 1 World Trade Center currently
under construction in the real Manhattan. Tianjin officials are
employing the philo
1".
Debt, Oil and lnfluen ye
i
\ .
i
x i'
xi.
.
\ | \a \
How China Development Bank V
ls Rewriting the Rules of Finance
Henry Sanderson
Michael Forsy'tghee
, _.,'
. I
xviii
PREFACE
companies customers finance purchases. The chief financial officers of
telecom makers Amrica Mvil in Mexico and Brazils Tele Norte Leste
Participacoes say that international competitors just could not beat
CDBs terms to buy Huawei network eq
Let 10,000 Projects Bloom
23
land bank, a loan of 50 billion yuan, which was later handed over to the
financing vehicle. In 2003, CDB vice governor Yao Zhongmin held
talks with newly arrived major Dai Xianglong, who had beaten out
Chen for the top job at
2
CHINAS SUPERBANK
At the edge of the city on what used to be farmland is a brand-new,
shiny 30,000-seat steel stadium and an aquatic center, where workers
chisel out the Olympic rings by night-lights years after the event has
ended in the capital more th
Let 10,000 Projects Bloom
31
Not so fast, was the answer. CDB is an arm of the state, and its bonds
have de facto sovereign status. It has leveraged that status to lend to local
governments across the country from Tibet to Heilongjiang. Should its
bad loa