Chapter 9 - Evaluating Consequences
Evaluating Consequences - Fundamental Preferences
What Good Is Happiness? Most people would say the goal of decision making is to get an
outcome the individual would be happy with.
Decision utility: How happy you will b
Exam #1 Review
Questions:
1. Do you agree with the statement: The quality of a decision should be judged by the
outcome of the decision. Good decisions can have bad outcomes, bad decisions can
have good outcomes, you can only judge by what was known at th
READING NOTES
Chapter 3: General Framework of Judgement
Pages 45-67
3.1 A Conceptual Framework for Judgement and Prediction
Judgement: human ability to infer, estimate, predict the character of unknown events
Overconfidence
Human mind is designed to go
Chapter 6 - Explanation - Based Judgements
1
Everyone likes a good story:
How likely is it that an alcoholic tennis star who starts drinking a fifth a day will go on to win a
major tournament 8 months later?
How likely is it that an alcoholic tennis star
Leona Fallas
March 4th, 2014
Psychology 422
Richard John
Assignment 3
1. An example of anchoring the past in the present and then adjusting is a recent
conversation I had with my mom. We were discussing a friend I had from elementary school.
Recently, Nic
Paula Parra Martinez: Conjunction Fallacy, Tuesday, Feb. 25th
On the Determinants of the Conjunction Fallacy: Probability Versus Inductive
Confirmation
Class presentation:
Linda story: how do people make inferences.
One likely target and filler as a likel
Pathological gamblers are more vulnerable to the illusion of control in a standard associative learning task - See
more at: http:/journal.frontiersin.org/Journal/10.3389/fpsyg.2013.00306/abstract#sthash.lSEOih6F.dpuf
100 anonymous participants, diagnosed
Stephanie Stremick, Illusion of Control, Thursday, Feb. 27th
Keeping the illusion of control under control: Ceilings, floors, and imperfect
calibration
Study 1: Look for consecutive letters (for example ee)
-10 rounds, 90 second search, with intervals bre
Chapter 7 - Chance and Cause
1
Misconceptions About Chance: Vesna Vulovic was on a rare flight destroyed by a terrorist
bomb and because of a name confusion she was assigned to work the wrong flight. She lived.
Was she lucky? We tend to deny the random co
Chapter 8 - Thinking Rationally About Uncertainty
1
Chapter 8- Thinking Rationally About Uncertainty
8.1: What to Do About Biases
Ulysses chained himself to his ship before passing by the Sirens, realizing he wouldnt be able
to resist temptation. He didnt
READING NOTES
Chapter 4: Anchoring and adjustment
Pages 71-86
4.1 Salient Values
We have vague estimates
People adjust from the estimate but remain too close to it
Applies to non-numbers: if we know something about a football plater we expect other
foo
Satisfaction in Choice as a function of the number of alternatives: when goods satiate
Study done in Spain in 2009, previous studies show if youre given too many options people
just walk away and dont make a choice. Previous studies focused on either a ve
Auditory hindsight bias
Class Presentation: Auditory Hindsight
Hindsight bias: overconfident whether they would predict a certain outcome after they know the
outcome. Everything seems obvious in retrospect. Often, you hear what you expect to hear. In
pers
Emotions and decisions are often unconscious. Previous studies showed people with subliminal
images of happy faces drink more and pay more for beverages.
65 participants from University of Provence.
Target faces were neutral, the prime faces were either p
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9199183
R Square 0.8462498
Adjusted R 0.7232496
Square
Standard Error
0.3963609
Observations
10
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total
Intercept
SAT
REC
ESS
GPA
4
5
9
SS
MS
F
Significance F
4.32349 1.0808725 6
Leona Fallas
March 23, 2014
PSYC 422
Judgement and Decision Making
Mini-Project #4
Decomposition and Diagnosis With Probability Trees
What is the probability that the Dodgers will win the 2014 World Series?
Part A:
1. My dad, Michael Fallas, volunteered t
SUMMARY OUTPUT: Regression from Judge 1
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.5063007803
R Square
0.2563404802
Adjusted R Square
0.1718337166
Standard Error
1.8807219619
Observations
50
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total
Intercept
Photo Ranking
Age
# of Shar
Logical Probability - abstract way of thinking about uncertainty, applies very well to games of
chance
Whats the 100th digit of Pi? What is the probability that the 100th digit of Pi is 5? Subjective
probability says 0.1, because theres 10 digits and they
Odds= p / (1-p)
p=odds/(1+odds)
85% of the cabs were one color, 15% were another color, and people were accurate 80% of the
time. There was an accident, an eye-witness comes forward and says it was a blue cab. The
eye-witness says it was a blue cab. What
Prospect theory can account for this effect, that for two identical statements of the same
question with the same final outcome with the same choice, but prospect theory says we
incorporate that initial gift in a way that we dont think about it when we ma
Webers law: how we translate physical stimuli like light intensity, sound, weight
No matter how many pounds youre lifting, it has to be greater or less than the standard by 3%
to have a noticeable difference. If it was less than 3% I couldnt tell the diff
Chapter 6 Notes
Office Hours @ 9am for questions for the exam on Tuesday, office hours on Tuesday morning
as well. Short answer, open notes, closed book, cant print the papers but you can bring in notes
about the paper. Email or office hours for things yo
How you perform is not a perfect indicator of your ability.
Psychology calls this a measurement model. Certain underlying constructs of how well he can
hit the ball, how quickly he sees the ball, etc. It is a round ball and a round bat, anything can
happe
Counterfactuals - expectations - if - then statements
Decision affect theory
1 field study: what quantifies athletes emotional reactions
2 lab experiments
Study 1: participants looked at edited footage of the athletes right after their performance and
the