Uncertainty and Decision Analysis in Civil Engineering
CEGE 3102

Fall 2015
CE 3102
Fall 2015
Homework #3
Due at 10:10 AM, Tuesday, October 6, 2015
No resubmissions
Solutions posted October 6, 2015
This is an individual assignment. Although you may work together in solving these problems,
each student is responsible for a complet
Uncertainty and Decision Analysis in Civil Engineering
CEGE 3102

Fall 2015
3201 Homework 4
Name: Xu Yi
Class: CEGE 3201
Date: 10/12/2015
Introduction: This Homework 4 is about the mode choice and the route choice. Both
of mode choice and route choice are very important for forecast the trips on a place.
In the first part, my job
Uncertainty and Decision Analysis in Civil Engineering
CEGE 3102

Fall 2015
Introduction
The objective of this travel diary was to evaluate origins, destinations, and modes of transportation in a
typical day. By recording start and end locations, travel time, means of transportation, who you traveled
with, and the purpose of the
Uncertainty and Decision Analysis in Civil Engineering
CEGE 3102

Fall 2015
CE 3102
Fall 2015
Homework #1
Solutions
This is an individual assignment. Although you may work together in solving these problems,
each student is responsible for a complete, individual, submission.
1. The file highlandeb.txt contains measurements of veh
Uncertainty and Decision Analysis in Civil Engineering
CEGE 3102

Fall 2015
CE 3102
Fall 2015
Homework #2
Solutions
This is a team assignment. You may work together in teams of up to, but not exceeding,
three people. Only one written submission is required from each team. However, every
team member is responsible for knowing all
Uncertainty and Decision Analysis in Civil Engineering
CEGE 3102

Fall 2015
CE 3102
Fall 2015
Homework #2
Due: 10:10 AM, Thursday Sept. 24, 2015
Resubmissions due: 10:10 AM, October 1, 2015
This is a team assignment. You may work together in teams of up to, but not exceeding,
three people. Only one written submission is required
Uncertainty and Decision Analysis in Civil Engineering
CEGE 3102

Fall 2015
CE 3102
Fall 2015
Homework #1
Due: 10:10 AM on September 17, 2015
Resubmissions due: 10:10 AM, Sept. 24, 2015
Solutions posted by: 4 PM, Sept. 24, 2015
This is an individual assignment. Although you may work together in solving these problems,
each studen
Uncertainty and Decision Analysis in Civil Engineering
CEGE 3102

Fall 2015
Introduction to Probability 2
Conditional Probability
CE 3102
Fall, 2015
Conditional Probability
Often, were interested in probabilities relative to a subset of
possible outcomes:
P(heart disease  age > 65 years)
P(flood  10 inches of rain in past 24 ho
Uncertainty and Decision Analysis in Civil Engineering
CEGE 3102

Fall 2015
Progress Report
Bernoulli
Geometric
Binomial (today)
Poisson (Thursday)
Round up the usual suspects!
Uniform
Exponential
Normal
Lognormal
Gumbel
Casablanca, Warner Bros, 1942
Identifying HighRisk Roads:
Binomial Random Variable
CE 3102
Fall 2015
Sidetrac
Uncertainty and Decision Analysis in Civil Engineering
CEGE 3102

Fall 2015
Managing Uncertainty
Tomorrow I start a new job at UMN. Work starts at 9 AM, and if Im late on
the first day itll look bad.
Travel time from home to UMN:
Introduction to Probability
25 minutes 5 minutes when traffic is light
(about the time)
40 minutes 10
Uncertainty and Decision Analysis in Civil Engineering
CEGE 3102

Fall 2015
This Weeks Recitation
In this weeks recitation we will derive a probability
distribution for a random variable by setting up and
solving differential equations
Experience has shown that students can have a rough time
completing the exercise before the end
Uncertainty and Decision Analysis in Civil Engineering
CEGE 3102

Fall 2015
CE 3102
Introduction to Probability
Basic Ideas:
Experiment: An activity that yields an (observable) outcome
Deterministic experiment: an activity that yields the same outcome when repeated under essentially
similar conditions
Random experiment: an activi
Uncertainty and Decision Analysis in Civil Engineering
CEGE 3102

Fall 2015
Quick Quiz
Solution
In our piledriving example, with p = 0.2 and n=5, we did not hit a rock in the
first foot, so we know X>0. What is the probability we now manage to drive the
pile to bedrock?
We want P(X=5  X >0)
P ( X 5 X 0)
P ( X 0)
P ( X 5)
P ( X
Uncertainty and Decision Analysis in Civil Engineering
CEGE 3102

Fall 2015
Lab 3
Class: 3201 lab 3
Name: Xu Yi
Date: 05/10/2015
Introduction: This lab is about understanding the effects of road
construction on traffic and how to evaluate alternatives of network
construction. Because of the increased economic activities. The trip