DAT 520 Problem Set 5
Conditional Probability in Decision Trees
In Module Five, our exercise is building on what you have learned in prior modules. The three reference
videos for probabilistic top-down tree modeling are provided below. Watch each of these
Shanquala Pruit
DAT 520
6/6/2016
Homework Problems: Situation: It is a cold, dark, and stormy winter morning. Your boss has called a 5
a.m. meeting before she leaves to catch a flight to the Bahamas for her vacation, and there is a power
outage. Your alar
Shanquala Pruit
DAT - 520
7/9/2016
1. Assuming previous success [1 0], what is the probability of having a successful year?
=[0.33 0.67]
2. What is the probability of having two successful years?
= [0.6516 0.3484 0.4212 0.5788]
3. Using the strategy outli
Shanquala Pruitt
DAT 520
7/17/2016
I have decided to use continue to use the Tree Plan decision tree for my decision modeling.
Initially, this model seemed to be the best approach since my knowledge in Rattle was pretty
limited but after each milestone wa
Shanquala Pruitt
DAT 520
June 6, 2016
I have chosen to investigate which homeless subpopulation should be targeted to provide more
services in Louisiana as my research question. I chose to research Louisiana because I felt it
would be interesting to also
Shanquala Pruit
DAT 520
6/12/2016
Problem 1:
It is hard for me to determine what this decision tree is telling me because I could not figure out how to
move the text to see all of the text. I can make determinations based on the data that was produce in t
Simple Proportions and Binomials
Binomial Probability Review
The binomial probability formula:
Deal with factorials efficiently: You can cut down the amount of calculating by reducing factorials:
Remember that
And that
Solving Binomial Problems: Here are
maDAT 520 Problem Set 1
R for Probability Matrices
Prep Work: To perform exponential math on a matrix, you will need to load the expm package. If you are
prompted for a mirror, simply select the state you are in.
Install the ability to exponentiate matric
DAT 520 Problem Set 3
Cumulative and Conditional Probability
Overview: The last problem set in Module Two exposed you to dependent trials that caused the
probability to shift slightly with each choice of sock from the drawer. Kind of sneaky, eh? This prob
DAT 520 Problem Set 1
R for Probability Matrices
Prep Work: To perform exponential math on a matrix, you will need to load the expm package. If you are
prompted for a mirror, simply select the state you are in.
Install the ability to exponentiate matrices
DAT 520 Problem Set 2
Simple Proportions and Binomials
Binomial Probability Review
The binomial probability formula:
Deal with factorials efficiently: You can cut down the amount of calculating by reducing factorials:
Remember that
And that
Solving Binomi
Shanquala Pruit
DAT - 520
6/26/2016
Question 1: What is the probability that a property worth at least $150,000 in year 1 ends up worth $200,000 or more in year 5? (Hint: Think
about numerator and denominator to answer this question. How many properties a
THE R ZONE Exercise from Pages 180-181
# Run to identify the file path of the file
file.choose()
# Read in the data, install and load required package -
dat <- read.csv(file=<result of file.choose()>,header=T)
install.packages("rpart")
library(rpart)
#
Installing TreePlan,
SimVoi, and SensIt
3
3.1 INSTALLATION OVERVIEW
TreePlan, SimVoi, and SensIt are decision analysis add-ins for Microsoft Excel 2007 & 2010 &
2013 & 2016 (Windows) and Microsoft Excel 2011 & 2016 (Macintosh).
In general, an Excel add-in
Installing TreePlan,
SimVoi, and SensIt
3
3.1 INSTALLATION OVERVIEW
TreePlan, SimVoi, and SensIt are decision analysis add-ins for Microsoft Excel 2010 & 2013 &
2016 (Windows) and Microsoft Excel 2011 & 2016 (Macintosh).
In general, an Excel add-in is sof
Decision Trees
Using TreePlan
16
16.1 TREEPLAN OVERVIEW
TreePlan is a decision tree add-in for Microsoft Excel 2007 & 2010 & 2013 & 2016 (Windows)
and Microsoft Excel 2011 & 2016 (Macintosh).
TreePlan helps you build a decision tree diagram in an Excel wo
DAT 520 Problem Set 6
Markov Modeling in Decision Trees
Module Six introduces the Markov model. In this model, there are a defined set of states and we then have the
probability of jumping to the next state. Consider the states being the nodes of the tree
DAT 520 Problem Set 7: Sensitivity Analysis and Model Diagnostics
This assignment is designed to apply the following actions:
Perform a sensitivity analysis on a decision tree model.
Define and calculate success/non-success in probabilistic terms.
Use tho
Shanquala Pruit
DAT 520
7-10-2016
DAT 520 Problem Set 7: Sensitivity Analysis and Model Diagnostics
a. With all of that in mind, look at your graph. At what value (%) does doing the research first
become better than not doing the research? Where does it a
Shanquala Pruit
DAT 520
6/12/2016
Problem 1: You are taking a 10 question multiple choice test. If each question has four choices and you
guess on each question, what is the probability of getting one question correct? [Hint: This is a binomial
in the for
Shanquala Pruit
DAT 520
7/1/2016
I have decided to use the Tree Plan decision tree for my decision modeling. This approach seemed like
the best option for the research question I am trying to answer. With that said, now that I am building
the decision tre
DAT 520 Mopps Data Set Data Dictionary
y1_val to y5_val
Year1 to year5 estimated business sale price if sold that year.
y1_prf to y5_prf
Year1 to year5 business profit/loss that year.
mkt_idx_1 through mkt_idx_5 Market Index
Business property value relati