MS&E 153: Introduction to Decision Making in Organizations
Summer 2008
(DUPLICATE COPY FOR YOU TO KEEP)
Take-Home Final Exam (400 points)
Due: Saturday, August 16th 2008, 10:00 p.m.
Work on this exam individually. You may use any resources other than cons

Step 1 Build a generic model.
This model will help you compute the value of profit for all possible scenarios.
Step 2 Prepare a table to store all the values you need for your tornado diagram.
Tornado Diagram
Number Seeing the Movie (in millions) Average

MS&E 153: Introduction to Decision Making in Organizations
Summer 2008
(DUPLICATE COPY FOR YOU TO KEEP)
Take-Home Final Exam (400 points)
Due: Saturday, August 16th 2008, 10:00 p.m.
Work on this exam individually. You may use any resources other than cons

Audrey's Fruit Stand Decision Analysis w/ Value of Information and Control
Initial Supply Initial Cost 60 Demand H L 2 Probability 0.5 0.5 0.5 H 70 0.5 Price Demand H 5 L H 4 L H 3 L 50 35 80 0.5 3 L 30 3 20 30 65 45 0.5 H 60 0.5 L 4 Sales 50 0.5 70 4 L 2

Audrey's Fruit Stand Decision Analysis w/ Value of Information and Control
Initial Supply Initial Cost 60 Demand H L 2 Probability 0.5 0.5 0.5 H 90 0.5 Price Demand H 5 L H 4 L H 3 L 70 45 100 0.5 3 L 60 0.6 "L" 20 70 60 0.5 H 60 0.5 L Sales 60 0.5 90 4 L

MS&E 154: Strategic Decision Making Methodologies
Summer 2008
Take-Home Final Exam (400 points)
Due: Saturday, August 16th 2008, 10:00 p.m.
Work on this exam individually. You may use any resources other than consulting another person or previous years' e

Introduction to Decision Making in Organizations (MS&E153)
Summer 2007
Homework Assignment #1: Due Thursday, July 5th
(4:00 PM in 300-300 in person OR by email to: ghraban@stanford.edu) Question 1 (15 pts.)
Using concepts presented in class, identify a de

Introduction to Decision Making in Organizations (MS&E153)
Summer 2008
th
Homework Assignment #2: Due Wednesday, July 11 (in class)
Question 2 (20 pts.)
Cassie received $2000 from her grandparents for her 21st birthday. She must now decide what to do with

Introduction to Decision Making in Organizations (MS&E153)
Summer 2007
Question 2 (20 pts.)
Cassie received $2000 from her grandparents for her 21st birthday. She must now decide what to do with the money. To help her think of possible options, Cassie sol

Introduction to Decision Making in Organizations (MS&E153)
rd
Summer 2008
Homework Assignment #3: Due Wednesday, July 23 (before class)
The maximum score on this homework assignment is 80, which means that there are 20 possible bonus points that can be us

Introduction to Decision Making in Organizations (MS&E153)
Summer 2007
Homework Assignment #3: Due Wednesday, July 25th (before class)
The maximum score on this homework assignment is 80, which means that there are 20 possible bonus points that can be use

0.55= .48+.07
Problem 2
0.07= 1 (.48+.27+.18)
b
a
.45 = .18 + .27
For part `c' you need to flip the tree and find the answer
Problem 4
a.
Actual Color of the cab Color perceived by the witness
Assessed form
b.
Color perceived by the witness
Actual Color o

Decision Hierarchy
Policy Positive experience with pilot test, we want to expand to new sites Budget constraints: Currently proposed 25 studios, continue roll out as long as ROI is positive Will use the provider with the best deal Strategic What cities wh

Introduction to Decision Making in Organizations
(MS&E 153) Summer 2008
Homework Assignment #4: Due Wednesday, August 6th (in class)
The maximum score on this homework assignment is 80, which means that there are 20 possible bonus points that can be used

Introduction to Decision Making in Organizations (MS&E 153)
Summer 2007
Homework Assignment #4: Due Wednesday, August 8th (in class)
The maximum score on this homework assignment is 80, which means that there are 20 possible bonus points that can be used

Introduction to Decision Making in Organizations (MS&E153)
Summer 2008
Homework Assignment #1: Due Wednesday, July 2nd
(4:00 PM in 300-300 in person OR by email to: sgupta16@stanford.edu) Question 1 (15 pts.)
Using concepts presented in class, identify a

Introduction to Decision Making in Organizations (MS&E153)
Summer 2008
Homework Assignment #1: Due Wednesday, July 2nd
(4:00 PM in 300-300 in person OR by email to: sgupta16@stanford.edu) Question 1 (15 pts.)
Using concepts presented in class, identify a

Introduction to Decision Making in Organizations (MS&E153)
Summer 2008
Homework Assignment #2: Due Wednesday, July 9 (in class or by email)
Question 1 (15 pts.)
Critique the following decision hierarchy. Be as specific as you can. Google's decision hierar

Introduction to Decision Making in Organizations (MS&E153)
rd
Summer 2008
Homework Assignment #3: Due Wednesday, July 23 (before class)
The maximum score on this homework assignment is 80, which means that there are 20 possible bonus points that can be us

Introduction to Decision Making in Organizations
(MS&E 153) Summer 2008
Homework Assignment #4: Due Wednesday, August 6th (in class)
The maximum score on this homework assignment is 80, which means that there are 20 possible bonus points that can be used

We want to achieve clarity of action based on decision
quality.
MS&E 153:
Intro. to Decision Making in
Organizations
Clear,
Genuine
Meaningful, Reliable
Information
Preferences
Sound
Creative,
Doable
Modeling and Measuring Preferences
Reasoning
Alternativ

Introduction to Decision Making in Organizations (MS&E 153)
Summer 2007
Homework Assignment #4: Due Wednesday, August 8th (in class)
The maximum score on this homework assignment is 80, which means that there are 20 possible bonus points that can be used