Characteristics of a good hypo:
1) Empirical statement- educated guesses about what is, not what ought to be
2) generality-explain a general not a particular phenomena
3) plausibility- logical reason for it (lit reviews are helpful here)
Back to Currency Investment
How are exchange rates determined?
1) Fixed Rates: Individual countries that use currency must maintain a set
price in terms of other currencies. This means countries may have to buy
& sell units of other currency as well as th
Two Financial Institituions you should know
International monetary fund (imf):
Initially created to act as a bank of foreign currency so that indivual
countries can keep their currencies stable.
countries were allocated special drawing rights (SDRs) that
Goal is to gain scientific knowledge
Empirical research of political phenomena
E (UAt+1 ) E (UBt+1)
The primary question motivating your research.
You suspect there is a relationship between two variables
Review academic literature
What else has been done in this area?
Use the electronic journal databases
Look at sources suggested by JSTOR
Look at research cited by others
A February 2012 CNN/ORC International poll found just 25 percent thought the
U.S. had a duty to act. That sense of responsibility peaked in May 2012 at 33
Examine a political phenomena
You suspect there is a relationship between two var
What happens if you find something that isnt consistent with the theory?
Develop Hypotheses (using previous research as a guide)
Do researchgather data
Test your hypotheses-what is your decision?
Have you found evidence to support your cl
How to incorporate the lit
How does it fit?
Add to our understanding?
Abstract or preface
What is the research design?
Concepts and ideas (Johnson and Reynolds)
Not the boxcar
focus on the concepts, ideas, and methods in the lit
H1: Americans who are less trusting of China are more likely to believe that
Chinas emergence as a world power poses a threat to the United States.
What are you trying to explain?
What do you propose offers at least a partial explanation for variation in
Opinions on abortion
1 = SA,
3 = NA nor D,
5 = SD
Abortions should be permitted in the first three months of
Abortions should be permitted if the mothers life is in danger.
Abortions should be permitted whenever a woman wants one.
Precision of our measurement and the claims we are making
should be exhaustive and mutually exclusive
different categories; categorical-level data
Religion, race, party i.d.
But intervals do not matter
H2: People become more politically conservative as they age.
Unit of analysis?
Not age (this is the IV)
o Conceptual definition
o Operational definition how to measure the absence or amount of
these concepts in the real world (J&R).
1) Regulation: A state may impose rules on any or all aspects of production,
in terms of labor, quality of goods, environmental impacts, packaging,
transportation, etc. these affect costs of production, so good prices are