Homework Assignment #1
88-223: Professor
Fischbeck
SMC 6863
Problem
a. What is the problem?
Apple dominates digital music sales, with nearly 70% of the market, while
Amazon is far behind at about 12% (reported by NPD Group last year). Amazon,
in order to

DADSS First Midterm Spring 2008 Test Number: _ Don't forget, this test will be graded using the special grading scheme. The questions are roughly organized in order of difficulty within each topic. However, you may have strengths or weaknesses that do not

Homework Assignment #4
SMC 6863
88-223: Professor Fischbeck
1. Problem 51 on page 566
a. EV II of Administering the Test = $6973.60 - $0 = $6973.60
b. EV of II of Administering the Test = $5,508.80 - $0 = $5,508.80
c. $6973.60 - $100 (cost of test) = $687

PracticeProblems
ACarBuyingProblem
Youaretryingtodecideifyoushouldbuyausedcar. YouhavelookedatConsumer
Reports,anditsaysthattheparticularmodelthatyouareinterestedinisveryreliable.
The only potential problem is with the transmission. On about 20% of the ca

Lecture 11
DADSS
Decision Analysis
Bayes Theorem
1
Information and Value
We have seen that
Information (often) has value
How much value information has depends on:
Whether we change our decisions
What we know at the outset (Prior or Initial Beliefs)
Th

Lecture 10
Expected Value of Perfect
Information
EVPI
1
Athabasca oil sands
Alberta, Canada has a large amount of petroleum in what is known as oil
sands (or tar sands)
Keystone XL pipeline was proposed to import oil from these oil sands into the US
Pi

Lecture 12
DADSS
Decision Analysis
Expected Value of Imperfect Information
1
Imperfect Information
Last class, we discussed the basic
model for using Bayes Theorem to
solve decision problems under
imperfect information
Today:
Calculating EVII
Multiple

DADSS
Optimization:
Genetic Algorithms for Rugged Landscapes
Part II
1
Navigating Rugged Landscapes
We can run genetic algorithms in Excel using
Evolutionary Solver
Lets try it for the Campaigning President problem
2
Campaigning President Model
Input
Repr

Lecture 5
DADSS
Time value of money:
Managerial Accounting Applications
Last updated: 1/28/2015
1
Real world problems involving
intertemporal decision-making
Corporate finance / managerial accounting
Public projects
Financial accounting / investment ba

Lecture 6
DADSS
Time value of money:
Mortgages & Annuities
IRR & Payback Period
Last updated: 1/2/2016
1
Administrative
Homework #2 due today
Homework #3 due next Thursday
5 problems
Start now
Excel via Virtual Andrew:
http:/www.cmu.edu/computing/clu

Lecture 3
DADSS
Decision Analysis: Making Tradeoffs
with Cost-Benefit Analysis
1
Outline
When can we make decisions
with cost-benefit analysis?
Understanding the
Consequences:
Build a consequences table
Grappling with your Tradeoffs:
Part art / part sc

Lecture 4
DADSS
Decision Analysis:
Intertemporal Tradeoffs
1
An offer
$
50
ON PRESENTATION OF THIS NOTE TO
RUSSELL GOLMAN, HE WILL PAY THE
BEARER
FIFTY DOLLARS
ISSUE DATE
JANUARY 21, 2016
_
DUE AND PAYABLE
WITHOUT INTEREST ON OR AFTER
THE DUE DATE HEREON

HOMEWORK ASSIGNMENT #2
Due: Thursday, January 28, 2016 (beginning of class)
1) Sylvie is choosing an apartment to move into from the five alternatives listed below.
Sylvie tells you she considers the following exchanges to be even swaps:
$20 per month to

HOMEWORK ASSIGNMENT #5
Due: Tuesday, February 23, 2016 in Class
(1) Suppose that you work for the snow removal program for the City of Pittsburgh.
They are trying to decide what supplies to order for next year. Ice control COSTS
depend on the temperature

HOMEWORK ASSIGNMENT #10
Due:
Thursday, April 28, 2016 (beginning of class)
1. Choose a team of up to 4 applicants to hire for a special project. The team must satisfy the following
requirements:
There must be at least 1 male and 1 female
There should be

Lecture 26
DADSS
Linear Programming, Part III
Last updated: 4/19/2016
1
Administrative
Homework #9 due Thursday
2
Personal Training
Inspired by recent media about boxers, you have decided to build up muscle and
begin training (so that you can be hired t

USE YOUR SMC NUMBER INSTEAD OF YOUR NAME
ON ALL ASSIGNMENTS
HOMEWORK ASSIGNMENT #1
Due: Tuesday, January 19, 2016 (beginning of class)
Find an article in a newspaper that describes a person or organization making a decision.
Using the techniques discussed

DADSS
Optimization:
Genetic Algorithms for Rugged Landscapes
Part I
1
Optimization
How do we navigate rugged landscapes?
A rugged
Landscape
2
Cant We Just Search Through
Every Possible Solution?
We can program a computer to search through every
possible s

Lecture 25
DADSS
Linear Programming, Part II
Last updated: 1/6/2016
1
Administrative
Homework #9 due next Thursday
2
Taylors Toy Cars and Trucks (V2)
Taylor mass produces and sells toy cars and trucks and wants to
maximize profits for the year. Taylor s

HOMEWORK ASSIGNMENT #6
Due: Tuesday, March 1, 2016 (beginning of class)
Recruit two of your friends or classmates to answer the following questions. Alternate
whether you ask A or B first. Always ask C last.
Consider an opportunity to extend your life in

HOMEWORK ASSIGNMENT #9
Due: Thursday, April 21, 2016 (beginning of class)
1) Your company makes two types of mobile homes: the Enviro and the Rustic. The expected
profit for the Enviro is $8,000 per unit, while for the Rustic, it is $5,000 per unit. Maxim

Lecture 24
DADSS
Introduction to Linear Programming
Last updated: 4/9/2015
1
The (Simple) Hiring Problem
that youre trying to hire or admit people and you have 5000 applicants for
Suppose
1 position.
Youve arranged the files by GPA and years of experience

Lecture 19
DADSS
Evaluating Simulation Output
Last updated: 12/9/2015
1
How many simulations must we run?
With many simulations, we converge on the right
answer, but we might never get an exact solution
When do we get close enough?
2
How many simulations