DADSS First Midterm Spring 2008 Test Number: _ Don't forget, this test will be graded using the special grading scheme. The questions are roughly organized in order of difficulty within each topic. However, you may have strengths or weaknesses that do not

Homework Assignment #4
SMC 6863
88-223: Professor Fischbeck
1. Problem 51 on page 566
a. EV II of Administering the Test = $6973.60 - $0 = $6973.60
b. EV of II of Administering the Test = $5,508.80 - $0 = $5,508.80
c. $6973.60 - $100 (cost of test) = $687

Homework Assignment #1
88-223: Professor
Fischbeck
SMC 6863
Problem
a. What is the problem?
Apple dominates digital music sales, with nearly 70% of the market, while
Amazon is far behind at about 12% (reported by NPD Group last year). Amazon,
in order to

Lecture 3
DADSS
Decision Analysis: Making Tradeoffs
with Cost-Benefit Analysis
1
Outline
When can we make decisions
with cost-benefit analysis?
Understanding the
Consequences:
Build a consequences table
Grappling with your Tradeoffs:
Part art / part sc

Lecture 6
DADSS
Time value of money:
Mortgages & Annuities
IRR & Payback Period
Last updated: 1/2/2016
1
Administrative
Homework #2 due today
Homework #3 due next Thursday
5 problems
Start now
Excel via Virtual Andrew:
http:/www.cmu.edu/computing/clu

Lecture 5
DADSS
Time value of money:
Managerial Accounting Applications
Last updated: 1/28/2015
1
Real world problems involving
intertemporal decision-making
Corporate finance / managerial accounting
Public projects
Financial accounting / investment ba

Julie Kim
88-223 Decision Analysis
Homework Assignment 2
02 February 2017
A) Sylvie should choose the apartment on 5th Avenue, because it has the minimum net cost of
$1,297.50 (see figures).
B) The other apartments would have to offer discounts of 6.97% (

Lecture 4
DADSS
Decision Analysis:
Intertemporal Tradeoffs
1
An offer
$
50
ON PRESENTATION OF THIS NOTE TO
RUSSELL GOLMAN, HE WILL PAY THE
BEARER
FIFTY DOLLARS
ISSUE DATE
JANUARY 21, 2016
_
DUE AND PAYABLE
WITHOUT INTEREST ON OR AFTER
THE DUE DATE HEREON

Julie Kim
88-223 Decision Analysis
Homework Assignment 7
04 April 2017
Participant Results: Student A
Health States
Percentage of year in full
health equivalent to
guaranteed year in each
health state
Days of full health
equivalent to one year in
each hea

Lecture 8
Decision Analysis
Assessing Probability
1
Administrative
Homework #3 due Today
Homework #4 due a week from Tuesday
Project group contracts due a week from today
2
Dealing with uncertainty
Accept it
Assess probabilities
Perform sensitivity

1/23/2017
Trump Revives Ban on Foreign Aid to Health Groups if They Give Abortion Counseling - The New York Times
https:/nyti.ms/2kkuueB
WORLD
Trump Revives Ban on Foreign Aid to
Health Groups if They Give Abortion
Counseling
By SOMINI SENGUPTA JAN. 23, 2

Julie Kim
88-223 Decision Analysis
Homework Assignment 6
28 March 2017 (Extended to 30 March with permission from Prof. Golman)
Problem 1
Which plan has the highest IRR?
The NPV for Plan 1 is 0. This means that the discount rate of 9.7% represents the in

Julie Kim
88-223 Decision Analysis
Homework Assignment 4
21 February 2017
Problem 1
Under profits, it is best advised to consider the following alternatives:
Pessimism, or expecting the lowest outcome in each state, suggests for alternative 2. This
alter

Julie Kim
88-223 Decision Analysis
Homework Assignment 3
09 February 2017
Problem 1
6% Interest Rate
The balloon payment of $17,908.49 was calculated from a monthly payment of $790.85,
multiplied by ten years, and added to the initial investment of $10,00

Julie Kim
88-223 Decision Analysis
Homework Assignment 8
13 April 2017
Problem 1
Plan I:
A)
I can expect to go through 235 plays before going bankrupt.
The probability of ever having over $1000 in my hand is 0%.
The average maximum that I will have in my

PracticeProblems
ACarBuyingProblem
Youaretryingtodecideifyoushouldbuyausedcar. YouhavelookedatConsumer
Reports,anditsaysthattheparticularmodelthatyouareinterestedinisveryreliable.
The only potential problem is with the transmission. On about 20% of the ca

Lecture 11
DADSS
Decision Analysis
Bayes Theorem
1
Information and Value
We have seen that
Information (often) has value
How much value information has depends on:
Whether we change our decisions
What we know at the outset (Prior or Initial Beliefs)
Th

HOMEWORK ASSIGNMENT #9
Due: Thursday, April 21, 2016 (beginning of class)
1) Your company makes two types of mobile homes: the Enviro and the Rustic. The expected
profit for the Enviro is $8,000 per unit, while for the Rustic, it is $5,000 per unit. Maxim

HOMEWORK ASSIGNMENT #6
Due: Tuesday, March 1, 2016 (beginning of class)
Recruit two of your friends or classmates to answer the following questions. Alternate
whether you ask A or B first. Always ask C last.
Consider an opportunity to extend your life in

Lecture 25
DADSS
Linear Programming, Part II
Last updated: 1/6/2016
1
Administrative
Homework #9 due next Thursday
2
Taylors Toy Cars and Trucks (V2)
Taylor mass produces and sells toy cars and trucks and wants to
maximize profits for the year. Taylor s

DADSS
Optimization:
Genetic Algorithms for Rugged Landscapes
Part I
1
Optimization
How do we navigate rugged landscapes?
A rugged
Landscape
2
Cant We Just Search Through
Every Possible Solution?
We can program a computer to search through every
possible s

Problem 3
1) (C), Indoors
The expected value of holding the party outdoors is 68.
The expected value of holding on the porch is 58.
The expected value of holding the party indoors is 25.
Holding that I am minimizing costs, I will hold the party indoors.
P

Lecture 3
Decision Analysis
Making Tradeoffs with Cost-Benefit
Analysis
1
Outline
When can we make decisions
with cost-benefit analysis?
Understanding the
Consequences:
Build a consequences table
Grappling with your Tradeoffs:
Part art / part science

Decision Analysis
Expected Utility
1
Why Maximize Expected
Value?
Recall Lecture 3 on making tradeoffs
with cost-benefit analysis
How do we analyze tradeoffs?
2
Why Maximize Expected
Value?
Recall Lecture 3 on making tradeoffs
with cost-benefit analysis
H

Lecture 9
Decision Analysis
Decision Trees
Last updated: 1/6/2016
1
Administrative
Homework #4 due in a week
2
A Decision
Suppose Ive just found a nice bike on sale at REI
Its the best price I can find, but I dont really know
how much Ill like the bike o

Lecture 7
Decision Analysis
Uncertainty
1
Administrative
Homework #3 due Thursday
2
Real decisions
What are you going to do this summer? Next year?
What should we do about the measles outbreak?
3
Real decisions involve uncertainty
What are you going t