Julie Kim
88-223 Decision Analysis
Homework Assignment 6
28 March 2017 (Extended to 30 March with permission from Prof. Golman)
Problem 1
Which plan has the highest IRR?
The NPV for Plan 1 is 0. This means that the discount rate of 9.7% represents the in
Julie Kim
88-223 Decision Analysis
Homework Assignment 4
21 February 2017
Problem 1
Under profits, it is best advised to consider the following alternatives:
Pessimism, or expecting the lowest outcome in each state, suggests for alternative 2. This
alter
Julie Kim
88-223 Decision Analysis
Homework Assignment 3
09 February 2017
Problem 1
6% Interest Rate
The balloon payment of $17,908.49 was calculated from a monthly payment of $790.85,
multiplied by ten years, and added to the initial investment of $10,00
Julie Kim
88-223 Decision Analysis
Homework Assignment 2
02 February 2017
A) Sylvie should choose the apartment on 5th Avenue, because it has the minimum net cost of
$1,297.50 (see figures).
B) The other apartments would have to offer discounts of 6.97% (
1/23/2017
Trump Revives Ban on Foreign Aid to Health Groups if They Give Abortion Counseling - The New York Times
https:/nyti.ms/2kkuueB
WORLD
Trump Revives Ban on Foreign Aid to
Health Groups if They Give Abortion
Counseling
By SOMINI SENGUPTA JAN. 23, 2
Julie Kim
88-223 Decision Analysis
Homework Assignment 7
04 April 2017
Participant Results: Student A
Health States
Percentage of year in full
health equivalent to
guaranteed year in each
health state
Days of full health
equivalent to one year in
each hea
Julie Kim
88-223 Decision Analysis
Homework Assignment 8
13 April 2017
Problem 1
Plan I:
A)
I can expect to go through 235 plays before going bankrupt.
The probability of ever having over $1000 in my hand is 0%.
The average maximum that I will have in my
Problem 3
1) (C), Indoors
The expected value of holding the party outdoors is 68.
The expected value of holding on the porch is 58.
The expected value of holding the party indoors is 25.
Holding that I am minimizing costs, I will hold the party indoors.
P
Lecture 3
Decision Analysis
Making Tradeoffs with Cost-Benefit
Analysis
1
Outline
When can we make decisions
with cost-benefit analysis?
Understanding the
Consequences:
Build a consequences table
Grappling with your Tradeoffs:
Part art / part science
Decision Analysis
Expected Utility
1
Why Maximize Expected
Value?
Recall Lecture 3 on making tradeoffs
with cost-benefit analysis
How do we analyze tradeoffs?
2
Why Maximize Expected
Value?
Recall Lecture 3 on making tradeoffs
with cost-benefit analysis
H
Lecture 9
Decision Analysis
Decision Trees
Last updated: 1/6/2016
1
Administrative
Homework #4 due in a week
2
A Decision
Suppose Ive just found a nice bike on sale at REI
Its the best price I can find, but I dont really know
how much Ill like the bike o
Lecture 7
Decision Analysis
Uncertainty
1
Administrative
Homework #3 due Thursday
2
Real decisions
What are you going to do this summer? Next year?
What should we do about the measles outbreak?
3
Real decisions involve uncertainty
What are you going t
Lecture 12
Decision
Analysis
Expected Value of Imperfect Information
1
Imperfect Information
Last class, we discussed the basic
model for using Bayes Theorem to
solve decision problems under
imperfect information
Today:
Calculating Expected Value of Im
Lecture 5
Decision Analysis
Time value of money:
Managerial Accounting Applications
Last updated: 1/28/2015
1
Real world problems involving
intertemporal decision-making
Corporate finance / managerial accounting
Public projects
Financial accounting / i
Lecture 10
Expected Value of Perfect
Information
EVPI
1
Athabasca oil sands
Alberta, Canada has a large amount of petroleum in what is known as oil
sands (or tar sands)
Keystone XL pipeline was proposed to import oil from these oil sands into the US
Pi
Decision Analysis
Multiattribute Utility Theory
1
Multiple Objectives and
Attributes
The decision what to eat for lunch
Possible objectives:
Eat a delicious meal
Eat a healthy meal
Eat an inexpensive meal
Attributes are:
Taste
Healthfulness
Cost
2
T
Lecture 6
Decision Analysis
Time value of money:
Mortgages & Annuities
IRR & Payback Period
Last updated: 1/2/2016
1
Administrative
Homework #2 due today
Homework #3 due next Thursday
5 problems
Start now
2
Annuities
Annuities are defined as a cash f
Lecture 11
Decision
Analysis
Bayes Theorem
1
Information and Value
We have seen that
Information (often) has value
How much value information has depends on:
Whether we change our decisions
What we know at the outset (Prior or Initial Beliefs)
The degr
Lecture 8
Decision Analysis
Assessing Probability
1
Administrative
Homework #3 due Today
Homework #4 due a week from Tuesday
Project group contracts due a week from today
2
Dealing with uncertainty
Accept it
Assess probabilities
Perform sensitivity
Lecture 2
How Can We Make Better Decisions?
A Framework for Decision Analysis
1
Choosing a College
How did you decide to attend
CMU?
2
Choosing a College
How did you decide to attend
CMU?
Lets outline how you could
analyze the decision of which
college to
Lecture 1
Decision
Analysis
Introduction to
Decision Analysis
1
To be, or not to be?
Should I get
married? Should I
have children?
Where should I live?
In Life
In
Busine
ss
Decision
s,
Decision
s
How should I invest my
savings?
Who should we hire?
Should
Pokol 1
Muriel Pokol
Professor Querbes
Organizations
29 January 2016
Pharmaceutical Organizations in Their Environment
Pharmaceutical organizations today have debatable degrees of dependence between
themselves and their environment. The perception of who
Pokol 1
Muriel Pokol
Organizations
Professor Querbes
8 April 2016
Essay 3: Power in the Toyota Production System
The Toyota Production System is can be used as an excellent demonstration for
several different perspectives on power. Power leads to control,
Muriel Pokol
Professor Querbes
Organizations
25 March 2016
Response Essay to Group 4
Proctor and Gamble is a company that focuses on staple supplies, with twentyone brands over five business segments. Nothing specifically went wrong for the
company to hur
Pokol 1
Muriel Pokol
Professor Querbes
Organizations
12 February 2016
Tri Delta and Structural Analysis
Delta Delta Delta is a social organization, a sorority, for female students at
colleges and universities. The Alpha Tau chapter of Tri Delta is the spe
Negotiation
Domestic Focus
Class 4
Prof. Silvia Saccardo
Fall 2016
Present Bias: tendency to over-value the present at the
expense of our long-term intentions
Present Bias: tendency to over-value the present at the
expense
Negotiation
Domestic Focus
Class 2
Prof. Silvia Saccardo
Fall 2016
Some admin info
Class is on blackboard
My email: [email protected]
Office hour: Wed 3-4pm
TA: Ammara Shariq
Email: [email protected])
Office hour: Mond
Negotiation
Domestic Focus
Class 3
Prof. Silvia Saccardo
Fall 2016
Questions
List a behavioral principle for why first offers
Questions
List a behavioral principle for why first offers
Discuss with person next to you.
Qu