1
PHIL 111: Inductive Logic
Class problems
Chapters 2, 6, and 4
Chapter 2: Induction
a. Population to sample: Ex.
b. Sample to population: Ex.
c. Sample to sample: Ex.
d. Argument from authority: Ex.
e. Testimony: Ex.
f. Inference to the best explanation:
1
Inductive Logic
PHIL 111
Fall 2009
Chapters 8 and 9, Expected Value and Maximizing Expected value
Expected Value of A: Exp(A) = [Pr(Ci/A)U(Ci)]
Exp(A) = Pr(C1/A)][U(C1)] + [Pr(C2/A)][U(C2) + etc.
(i.e. the expected value of an act is the sum of the prod
Brian Spillane Philosophy 102 Final Paper Nonmaterial Beings in a Material World Are we as humans anything more than physical bodies in a physical world? It is a question as old as time itself. Our human nature leaves us wondering what will happen to us a
Deductive and inductive logic
Large part of the philosophical tradition has considered inductive arguments as
incomplete deductive arguments.
In the sense that other possible causal influences have not been / cannot be
accounted for.
This was before th
PHIL 111: Introduction to Logic II
Fall 2010
Your name
Exam 1
General instructions (please read them carefully first):
Please write your name at the top of each page. This is important if you use additional paper.
Please read the instructions for each pro
Some Misunderstandings
Arguments
Arguments are made of statements (propositions) that must have a truth value or a
probability
Deductive arguments are valid or invalid (in all possible worlds).
Inductive arguments are weak or strong (-ly supported by t
Modern Interpretations of probability
Lets go top-down now
Bottom-up
Bottom-up means rules are extracted from certain empirical happenings.
Ideal random processes = games of chance
Lottery drawings as factual random numbers.
From these processes of th
PHIL 111: Introduction to Logic II
Fall 2010
Your name
Exam 2
General instructions (please read them carefully first):
Please write your name at the top of each page. This is important if you use additional paper.
Please read the instructions for each pro
Assigning Probabilities
Outcomes and events
Outcomes are the elementary results of trials.
Events are constructed out of the outcomes of trials; e.g., even number on a die, card
higher than 10, by means of set theory.
Sets and sentences
Translate betwe
False positives and false negatives
Confidence intervals
False positives and false negatives
False positives:
Pr (positive test | No disease)
False negatives
Pr (negative test |Disease)
Both contribute to Pr (E), together with those two Prs where the t
Decision theory
Where to go from here to have the most fun?
Decision theory
Combines the measures of probability and utility.
We evaluate the options we have at disposal.
Decide for the option with the maximal expected utility.
If it is uncertain whic
Deductive and Inductive Arguments
Truth values and numbers
In deductive logic, we assumed that all truth values are fixed and that all terms refer.
Checking the truth is not the business of logic.
In inductive logic, we assign numbers, i.e., probabilit
Confidence intervals
How precisely do you want to know it?
Confidence Levels
Estimate that our true population statistics is within certain bounds given by the sample
statistics.
Pr [(B/N - e) < p < (B/N + e)] = c
B/N is the sample result (blue balls w
Logic- the study of good and bad reasoning -the study of better/worse forms of deductive inference Characteristics of: Natural Language Natural World Artificial Language Artificial World
"Natural" Language -ex. English, Spanish, Japanese -Communicat
1
An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding.
David Hume.
Sect. V. Sceptical Solution of these Doubts
PART I.
34. The passion for philosophy, like that for religion, seems liable
to this inconvenience, that, though it aims at the correction of our
manners,
1
An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding.
David Hume.
Sect. IV. Sceptical Doubts concerning the Operations of the Understanding
PART I.
20. All the objects of human reason or enquiry may naturally be
divided into two kinds, to wit, Relations of Ideas,
SECTION II
OF THE ORIGIN OF IDEAS
EVERY one will readily allow, that there is a considerable difference between the perceptions of
the mind, when a man feels the pain of excessive heat, or the pleasure of moderate warmth, and
when he afterwards recalls to
Decision Analysis
Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Techniques play an important role in business,
government, everyday life, college football rankings
How can a manager provide a rational methodology for
decision making and analysis in the face of unc
1
Inductive Logic
PHIL 111 .001
Chapter 10, Decision under Uncertainty
1. a. Why does Hacking include Pascals wager in his introductory textbook on inductive logic?
b. Does Pascal think that we can prove the existence of God? The following is the relevant
1
PHIL 111: Inductive Logic
Fall 2009
Class Problems
Chapter 5 (Conditional Probability)
Pr(A/B) = Pr(AB)/Pr(B)
1. Imagine two urns, each containing red and green balls. Urn A has 80% red balls, 20% green balls, and
Urn B has 60% green, 40% red. You pick
1
PHIL 111: Inductive Logic
Class Problems
Chapter 1: Deduction
1. Informal Logic: validity and soundness
a. A valid argument is.
b. A sound argument is
[Ex. 1]
(1) All men are mortal.
(2) Socrates is a man.
(3) Therefore, Socrates is mortal.
[Ex. 2]
(1)
Why ask Why?
What is Logic all about?
Greek
Latin ratio
Rationality
Standard of argumentative rigor,
Find the best among various alternative,
Make the most reasonable assumptions in evaluating your options.
Form and Content
Logic concerns the form