Prof. Josh Clinton
Prof. John Geer
Prof. Bruce Oppenheimer
Meanwhile, Back in the USA
Who votes? Why? What are the consequences?
What are the Rules?
(And HOW do they Matter?)
Who can run? How do yo
a.i. Reforms that weakened power of parties
Civil service jobs given based on qualifications not party
Australian ballot adoption
Vote in private
These reforms reduced the power the parties had over
a. Mass Mobilization Campaigns (1824-1892)
a.i. 1828 hodgepodge of selection methods since old system was breaking
Jacksons campaign set the stage for future campaigns
Had structure, organized voters, had rallies,
Praise of plurality system
If we had a multi-party system (proportional), it
would be hard to define a clear winner and that could
lead to conflict and a lack of ability to agree on issues
Proportional govt is often less stable an
rule of felons voting, are citizens required to be a
member of party to vote in the primary
Closed Primary: only citizens in the party can vote in
that partys elections
Semi-closed Primary: unaffiliated and registered party
During reconstruction, southern states used
redistricting to dilute power of blacks
Voting Rights Act of 1965 made the dilution of
power through redistricting illegal
Minority must be large enough and
Very difficult for independent candidates to get on the
ballot due to the nature of the American party system
primaries make it hard to compete with the major two
a.ii. Term Limits limited time in office restricts candid
Campaigns and Elections
1. Chapter One: Understanding Elections
a.i. Rules limit:
amount of money spent
involvement of outside parties etc.
b.i. The context under which a candidate runs largely affects the outc
a.i. Increased partisanship
Almost 95% of voters are affiliated with a party
Becoming more ideologically homogeneous
b. Overall, most trends have stayed constant over the years
b.i. lots of similarities between early elections and elections
Some candidates have progressive ambition
want to rise in power
Contrast some candidates are content
a.i.1.b.i. dont want to risk giving up their current seat to
move up a seat
Duty to country
desire to change
a. Issue Positions
a.i. Median Voter Theorem
Assumes that voters range from liberal to conservative
Candidate that wins the median voter may win
a.i.1.a.i. these are often the swing voters
Trend: candidates have been
Assessing a good speech
Who is the audience?
What is the purpose?
Was the content compelling?
How was the delivery?
How did the audience react?
THE EFFECT OF CAMPAIGN SPENDING IN 2008 AND 2012
Campaign spending has exploded in the last two election cycles, with more
money spent on each the 2008 and 2012 elections than any other presidential election in
Public Opinion Polling: How to be a Smart
Prof. Josh Clinton
Why DO we care?
Gives an indication of what people are thinking about the issues.
In principle, polls are more nuanced than elections, which are about candidates.
Lecture 2: The Press and Political Scientists
Open Minded (Impartial)
Present both sides of every argument
Present a Thesis for h
The Effect of Conventions
Clearly Not Pass Interference.)
2012 Republican Convention
In case you missed it
The Effect of Conventions?
Why may conventions matter? (And why may they not?)
How do we determine if they matter?
Candidate Emergence: The Role of
Fame (Political or Otherwise)
Rep. Sonny Bono (R, CA)
U.S. House: 1994-1998
Rep. Mary Bono Mack (1998-current)
(Married Rep. Connie Mack IV (R, FL) in 2007)
7 Current Spouses in U.S. House
Political Science 150
15 November 2012
Contrasting Results From Vice Presidential Nomination
The transformation of the Vice Presidential selection process from election-based, to
under party control, to its current candidate-center
Elections do not matter inasmuch as the context and rules of the election are
defined by a completely distinct set of conditions largely out of the candidates control.
Candidates active manipulation of these conditions during a campaign,