QRA in Safety Engineering
HW 5, Solutions
Due Tuesday, 2/24/15
1. Data of vehicular accidents support the conclusion that the vehicle miles per year
driven between accidents can be represented by a normal distribution of miles
between accidents, X, with a

CHEN/SENG 430
Risk Analysis in Safety Engineering
Fall 2016
Risk Reminder-3
September 17, 2016
Dependent/independent vs. Mutually Exclusive
Check your understanding to distinguish between mutually exclusive and
dependent/independent, which are different p

Unit 10, Review 1
Introduction to Risk Analysis
Unit 1
Risk Analysis
in Safety Engineering
Fall 2016
1
Risk Analysis Map
System Data &
Precursor Events
Bayesian Updating
Complementary Info
Hazards
Characterization &
Scenario Development
Risk Re-Evaluation

CHEN/SENG 430
RA in Safety Engineering
F 2016
Risk Reminder
September 3, 2016
Engineering Uncertainty Management
Throughout the course, we will analyze available data and other information to work with
models that can predict future behavior to a degree.

CHEN/SENG 430
RA in Safety Engineering
Fall, 2016
Risk Reminder
September 10, 2016
Quality Products, Quality Information, Quality Analysis, Quality Decisions
From our plants and industry we expect to produce quality products within safe
working environmen

Risk Analysis in Safety Engineering
Homework 1, Solutions
Due 09/6/16
1. Citizen Engineer
a) As a Citizen Engineer, you are asked to explain briefly the difference between
hazard and risk. Provide an answer to identify and clarify the distinction between

T0
ENGINEER
I8 IIIIMAN
I'IIE IIIIlE 0E FAILURE
IN SUBBESSEIIL DESIGN
HENRY PETROSKI
VINTAGE BOOKS
A DIVISION OF RANDOM HOUSE, INC.
NEW YORK 1
BEING IIIIMAN
collapsed in 1981, one of my neighbors asked me how such
a thing could happen. He wondered, did e

Time Dependent Failure Models
Unit 12
Risk Analysis
in Safety Engineering
Fall 2016
1
References
Ebeling, C.E., Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability
Engineering, 2nd ed, Waveland Press, 2010, Chapter 4
(Ebeling, 2010)
Modarres, M., M

Risk Analysis in Safety Engineering
Homework 4, Solutions
Due 9/27/16
1. Chain Rule and the Markov Rule
Apply the chain rule to a system of four variables, 1, 2, 3, 4 with pdf, P(1,2,3,4).
We will use the chain rule when we design Bayesian networks to mod

Risk Analysis in Safety Engineering
Homework 2, Solutions
Due 9/13/16
1. RAE, p. 32, Problem 2.5. For part (c), calculate the mean length of operation time per
bus, T, so that the total fire risk per bus 10-6, which is the fatality risk
(deaths/person-yr)

RA in Safety Engineering
Homework 3, Solutions
Due 9/20/16
1. Consumption of jet fuel for maneuvering a satellite during one year = 8,760 hr is
normally distributed (follows the Normal distribution) with a mean of 10,000 hr and a std.
deviation, = 1000 hr

Dening the Structure
of Bayesian Networks
Adventure in Uncertainty Modeling
Unit 11
Risk Analysis
in Safety Engineering
Fall 2016
References
Fenton, N. and M. Neil, Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with
Bayesian Netw

Constant Failure Rate Model
Unit 8
Risk Analysis
in Safety Engineering
Fall 2016
1
References
Ebeling, C.E., Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability
Engineering, 2nd ed, Waveland Press, 2010, Chapter 3
(Ebeling, 2010)
Modarres, M., M. Kami

Review of Probability, Random
Variables, and Engineering
Distributions
Unit 4
Risk Analysis
in Safety Engineering
Fall 2016
1
References
Norman Fenton and Martin Neil, Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis
with Bayesian Networks, CRC P

CNG Fuel Supply and Refueling Station and Organization
Case Study, Unit 3, 39-58
September 3, 2016
System Definition and Information Analysis
System composed of CNG Buses and Bus Refueling Station and its socio-technical
organization. Component and subsys

Introduction to Risk Analysis
Unit 1
Risk Analysis
in Safety Engineering
Fall 2016
1
References
Modarres, M., Risk Analysis in Engineering, Taylor&Francis, 2006,
Chapter 1 on website (Modarres, RAE)
Norman Fenton and Martin Neil, Risk Assessment and Dec

Reliability Data Methods
Unit 9
Risk Analysis
in Safety Engineering
Fall 2016
1
References
Modarres, M., M. Kaminsky, and Vasiliy Krivtsov, Reliability Engineering and
Risk Analysis, 2nd ed, Taylor&Francis, 2010

Condence Intervals
Unit 4a
Risk Analysis
in Safety Engineering
Fall, 2016
1
Condence Interval EsAmaAon
Consider a sample x1, x2, xn from the distribuAon
of X with populaAon parameter . The probability
that is

Bayes Model to
Bayesian Networks
Unit 7
Risk Analysis
in Safety Engineering
Fall 2016
1
References
Fenton, N. and M. Neil, Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian
Networks, CRC Press, 2012 (F&N, 2012)
Pasm

Bayesian Data Analysis
Unit 5
Risk Analysis
in Safety Engineering
Fall 2016
1
References
Norman Fenton and Martin Neil, Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with
Bayesian Networks, CRC Press, 2012, Chapter 5 (RDBN, 2012)
Pasman, Hans J., Risk Analys

RA
Fall 2016
Confidence Intervals
Notes
September 5, 2016
Confidence intervals from traditional statistics and Credibility intervals, from the Bayes
model, are needed for Uncertainty Management as an important component of
Uncertainty and Risk Management

Citizen Engineer
September 6, 2016
Douglas, D., and Papadopoulos, G., Citizen Engineer, Prentice Hall, 2010
Like other people engineers are citizens with responsibilities of citizenship.
As educated engineers, you have an obligation to make decisions
cons

CHEN/SENG 430
Risk Analysis in Safety Engineering
Fall 2016
Risk Reminder-4
September 24, 2016
Problem Solving Method
In working a problem on homework or on an exam, use the problem solving
method employed in all of your engineering courses. Prior to begi

Basic Reliability Mathematics 51
and
I n
32 = 7; E :(x, i)2, (2.113)
i=1
so that i and S2 can be used as the point estimates of the distribution mean, u, and variance, oz. It
should be mentioned that the estimator of variance (Equation 2.113) is biased, s

Risk Analysis
in Engineering
Techniques, Tools, and Trends
Char-9759" l
Mohammad Modarres
Taylor & Francis
Tylor ncis Group
Boca Raton lILondon New York
A CRC title, part of the Taylor & Francis imprint, a member of the
Taylor SI Francis Group, the acade

Fault Tree and Success Tree
Method: Construction,
Quantification, Interpretation
Unit 14
Risk Analysis
in Safety Engineering
Spring, 2016
1
References
Modarres, M., M. Kaminskiy, and V. Krivtsov, Reliability
Engineering and Risk Analysis, 2nd ed, Taylor&

Event Tree Analysis
Unit 15
Risk Analysis
in Safety Engineering
Fall 2016
1
References
Modarres, M., Risk Analysis in Engineering, CRC Press,
2006 (RAE)
Norman Fenton and Martin Neil, Risk Assessment and
Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks, CRC Pre

Building BN Node Probability Tables
Parts 1, 2
Unit 13
Risk Analysis
in Safety Engineering
Fall 2016
References
Fenton, N. and M. Neil, Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with
Bayesian Networks, CRC Press, 2012, Chapter

Risk Analysis Verbal Language Memorization-1
to Facilitate Communication among Citizen Engineers, Personnel, and
Organization Stakeholders
Unit 1, Introduction to Risk Analysis
Hazard; Risk (Voluntary, Involuntary), Scenario (initiation, following, outcom

RA in Safety Engineering
Concepts
Fall 2016
Risk Concepts
September 15, 2016
System Approach: Describe a system approach to risk analysis of a socio-technical
engineering system and its organization, and why a system approach is necessary for
optimum deci