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CVEN9710 Management of
Risk - 2017
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Decision Trees and Monte
Steven Davis
Carlo Simulation
1:(2)
Aforesthastwotypesoftrees:ArtisticusandBoringicus.ThetimberfromArtisticustree
ishighlyprizedbywoodcarversbecausethegrainofthetimb
THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering
SEMESTER 1 — 2013
CVEN9710 Management of Risk
TIME ALLOWED — 2 hours
READING TIME — 10 minutes
THIS EXAMINATION PAPER HAS 5 PAGES INCLUDING THIS COVER PAGE
TOTAL NUMBER OF QUE
THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering
SEMESTER 1 — 2012
CVEN4103 Project Performance
CVEN9710 Management of Risk
1. TIME ALLOWED — 2 hours
2. READING TIME — 10 minutes
3. THIS EXAMINATION PAPER HAS 5 PAGES INCLUDI
Tutorial on Portfolio Theory Solution
1) A worker needs to save money for retirement. He believes that he will need to have a lump
sum of $1 million in 10 years time. He currently has no savings. He is paid a monthly salary
and wants to make equal monthly
Statistical Inference
Statistical inference involves making generalisations about a population from a sample
selected from the population. It is important that the sample be representative of the
population. Such a sample is unbiased. The sample should be
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is a tool that can be used to study the behaviour of systems that
have probabilistic input data and give probabilistic output data. It is also sometimes used for
integration. It is named after a city on
Basic Statistics
Sample Space
The collection of all possible outcomes in a situation is called the sample space.
This space consists of sample points, each of which is associated with one and only one
outcome.
Example
Throwing a dice.
Generally speaking t
Fault and Event Trees
Fault Trees
Fault trees provide a systematic method for investigating all the events that may lead to a
particular failure event. It provides a useful diagnostic tool for identifying failure paths and
critical events.
A fault tree st
Tutorial on Basic Statistics
1.
What is PA B C in terms of the probabilities of A, B, C and their
intersections?
PA B C PA PB C PA B C
PA PB PC PA B PA C PB C PA B C
2.
Which of the following are likely to be independent events?
A person having both b
Solution to Monte Carlo Simulation Tutorial
A special triathlon consists of 3 sections. In the first the athletes have to catch 3 fish. Each time
an athlete dives to catch a fish it takes 3 minutes and has a 50% chance of being successful. The
second leg
Answer is
0.5
all
a dog
a cat
no cat or dog
240
118
119
88
P(dog)
P(cat)
0.491667
0.495833
1-P(dog or cat) 0.366667
P(dog or cat) 0.633333
P(dog v cat)
0.354167
P(dog cat)
0.720339
P(Rams)
P(Ewes)
0.4
0.33
P(Rams and Ewes)
P(Rams or Ewes)
P( no Rams or Ew