Investigating Lottery Frauds with
Statistical Evidences
Ronald S. Lau, Ph.D.
HKUST ISOM
Coincidences: Remarkable or random?
A random sequence of 100 coin tossing:
We just learned that
THTTTHHTTTHTTTTHTHHHHHHT
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11/13/2012
TODAYS CONTENTS
1)
2)
3)
SOSC1100
LECTURE 13
Two key points for Research Questions
What to do for Group Project: Week 2
Simple Regression I [Strongly
recommended Reading: Simple
Regression (Chap 20 from SE) at the
course website]
Satoru Shimoka
11/8/2012
TODAYS CONTENTS
1.
2.
Further Issues on Confidence Intervals
and Hypothesis Testing
Association between Categorical
Variables
SOSC1100
LECTURE 12
1
Satoru Shimokawa
08 Nov, 2011
2
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CI AND HYPOTHESIS
TESTING (CONTINUOUS VARIAB
10/18/2012
ASSIGNMENT 2
Deadline
25 October (by 3pm), 2012
In the last night version,
I wrote self-test 6, 7, 8 and 9. But, it
should be self-test 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10.
You should start the assignment from
today.
Intellectually, Assignment 2 is much
more
11/6/2012
MAIN CONTENTS FROM TODAY
Group
Project [Intensive One-Month Project]
Lectures
A bit more on Confidence Intervals and
Hypothesis Testing
2. Associations between Categorical Variables
3. Simple Regression
4. Ideas of Multiple Regression [only gl
10/18/2012
INTERPRETATION OF THE WIDTH OF
CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
Formula for the (1-)*100% CI for the mean
height (cm)
The t-value solely
1 = (1 )( )
represents (1-)%
(1-)%
H1 cm
(1-)%
SOSC1100
LECTURE 10
Unit free
H2 cm
-t
CI(1-)
0
t
2
By multiplying t by
9/13/2012
TODAYS CONTENTS
1. Theory and Research
2. Research Design & Study Design
Choice
SOSC1100
LECTURE 2
1
13 September, 2012
Satoru Shimokawa
2
INTRODUCTION
The Real World
A Research Topic
Theory or Logic
A Research Question (Concepts)
Conceptualize
10/9/2012
TODAYS CONTENTS
1. Normal Distribution
2. The Standard Normal Distribution
3. Comparing Scores from Different
Distributions
4. Appendix Examples
SOSC1100
LECTURE 6
1
Satoru Shimokawa
04 Oct, 2012
2
EXAMPLE: HEIGHT HISTOGRAM
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
T
9/24/2012
ABOUT ASSIGNMENT 1
Submit
by October 4 (Thu).
are THREE parts.
PART I: complete and submit all self-test
via the LMES system.
PART II and PART III:
There
Submit a hard copy.
Need to use a statistical software.
Using R is not mandatory. Excel
9/20/2012
TODAYS CONTENTS
1. Fundamentals of Statistical
Analysis
2. Descriptive Statistics I
Measure of Central Tendency
SOSC1100
LECTURE 4
1
Satoru Shimokawa
20 Sept, 2012
2
TOW FUNDAMENTAL VIEWS IN STATISTICS
1. Every phenomenon that we analyze
using
10/11/2012
GRADING POLICY FOR ASSIGNMENTS
Four Categories
Good (2 points): answer all or most questions (i.e.,
provide a sign of efforts to answer the questions), and
more than 80% of a whole assignment are correct.
Pass (1 point): answer all or most ques
9/18/2012
IN-CLASS EXERCISE 1
IN-CLASS EXERCISE 1
Exercise 1: Using at least two of the variables, construct
one hypothesis.
Example1:
A Dependent Variable = Students alcohol use
An Independent Variable = Students gender,
Hypothesis: Male students drink a
Water Shortage and
Eutrophication
Groundwater Supply Depleted
Water withdrawal allows aquifers to collapse,
leading to sinking of the ground surface.
Aquifers consist of porous layers of sand or gravel or porous rock.
Below an aquifer, relatively imperme
Environmental Health
8- 1
Health
Complete state of physical, mental, and social
well being.
Not simply the absence of disease.
8- 2
Environmental Health
Disease: abnormal body condition that impairs
important physical or psychological functions.
Morbi
Environmental Toxicology
8- 1
Toxicology
Toxicology is the study of the adverse effects of
external factors on an organism/system.
Including environmental chemicals, drugs, and diet as
well as physical factors (e.g., ionizing radiation, UV).
Deals with
Functions of Law in Society
and Business Topic 4Topic
Employment Law
Employment
The importance of human
resource
resource
Quality of an organization is to a large extent
Quality
determined by quality of employees
determined
In order to ensure high indiv
Functions of Law in Society
Functions
and Business-Topic 1and
Corporate Law
WELCOME
1
10/09/13
Background & contact details
Charles
Lam, Bachelor of Law (LLB),
Postgraduate Certificate in Law (PCLL),
Master of Law (LLM), Doctor of Legal
Science Candidate
Additional Discussion Question on Employment Law
Ken is employed by L Ltd as an electrician. One day, he s asked to repair a
ceiling fan located in Ls workplace and is told to dismantle the fan and take
it to the electrical workshop for repair. In order t
Substantiating or Challenging
Statistical Test Conclusions
Ronald S. Lau, Ph.D.
HKUST ISOM
Measuring the strength of the relationship
Statistical significance
If a relationship between two variables is statistically significant,
it is unlikely to have occ
Causation and Association
Ronald S. Lau, Ph.D.
HKUST ISOM
Challenges
There are things that even scientists cant really
measure but may cause unpredicted effects
Complex interrelationship among variables
The prediction of the behavior of any large system i
Conditional Probability
Ronald S. Lau, Ph.D.
HKUST ISOM
For discussion: The O.J. Simpson case and
drunk drivers
For the O.J. Simpson case: Whats wrong with this
defense lawyers statement?
For drunk driving: Whats wrong with this statement?
99% of the time
Timid Testers
Ronald S. Lau, Ph.D.
HKUST ISOM
Why drug test?
Drug use is harmful to the athletes and affects the
sporting spirit and fairness
Drug test
Was first conducted at the Tour of Britain Cycle Races in 1965
Was incorporated into the Olympic Games
More on Correlation: Impacts of
Outliers and Hidden Variables
Ronald S. Lau, Ph.D.
HKUST ISOM
Which one shows a stronger relationship?
2
Effect of outlier
Will the correlation higher or lower than it would be
without the outlier?
3
Problem with correlatio
Analysis of Airline Safety Records
Ronald S. Lau, Ph.D.
HKUST ISOM
Commercial jet crashes around the world are climbing
and a spate of recent air disasters threatens to push
accident totals to levels not seen since the 1990s.
The number of major crashes d
A Critical Decision of
Recalling Bagged Spinach
Ronald S. Lau, Ph.D.
HKUST ISOM
Another outbreak of E. coli?
Nature of the outbreak
Critical decisions in a tight timeline
There are always cases of E. coli, but most of these illnesses are
sporadic and not
Pennsoil vs. Texaco
Ronald S. Lau, Ph.D.
HKUST ISOM
Deal or no deal?
https:/www.youtube.com/watch?v=GfDaplU9zuw
2
Key events leading to Pennsoil vs. Texaco
Early 1984
Pennzoil and Getty Oil agreed to a merger proposal
Before any formal documents signed, T
Decision Tree Analysis and Applications
Ronald S. Lau, Ph.D.
HKUST ISOM
Two roads diverged I took the
one less traveled by,
And
that
has
made
all
the
difference.
-Robert Frost, The Road not Taken
2
Finding the expected value (EV) in payoff
table: Example
Chance vs. Coincidence
Ronald S. Lau, Ph.D.
HKUST ISOM
Question of the day
How likely is that someone will win both lottery tickets
(given the chance of winning is 1 out of 4.1 million)?
How many people do you think would need to be in a
group in order to