Components of Decision Making
STAT 2112
A decision-making situation includes several components the decisions themselves and the actual
events that may occur in the future, known as states of nature. At the time the decision is made, the
decision maker is
STAT 2112
ESTIMATING PROBABILITY VALUES USING BAYESIAN ANALYSIS
Earlier we discussed the concept of the expected value of the perfect information. Although perfect
information about the future is rare, it is often possible to gain some amount of additiona
DECISION MAKING UNDER RISK
STAT 2112
(Decision Making with Probability)
In many real-world situations, it is common for the decision maker to have some idea about the
probabilities of occurrence of the different outcomes or states of nature. These probabi
Inventory Models
STAT 2112
The central problem we face in making any decision involving physical storage is finding an efficient
inventory policy. A key element in establishing such a policy is to determine how many items should be
stocked periodically an
Project Scheduling with Known Activity Times
STAT 2112
In many situations, managers are responsible for planning, scheduling, and controlling projects that
consist of numerous separate jobs or tasks performed by a variety of departments and individuals.
O
Project Scheduling with Uncertain Activity Times
STAT 2112
Once we develop the project network, we will need information on the time required to complete
each activity. This information is used in the calculation of the total time required to complete the
A Blend Example
STAT 2112
A petroleum company produces three grades of motor oil super, premium, and extra from three
components. The company wants to determine the optimal mix of the three components in each
grade of motor oil that will maximize profit.
A Transportation Example
STAT 2112
The Zephyr Television Company ships televisions from three warehouses to three retail stores on a
monthly basis. Each warehouse has a fixed supply per month and each store has a fixed demand
per month. The manufacturer w
Unit 3 Assignment
This assignment has a total of 70 marks and counts 6% towards your final course grade.
1. Chapter 9: (13 marks)
A server in a restaurant rates his chances at getting a tip from a customer as shown in the table.
a. Set up a simulation mod