YORK UNIVERSITY
Toronto, Ontario
ADMS3300 3.0
Decision Analysis
Fall 2008
Assignment # 1
Submitted to
Dr. Mustafa Karakul
Date Submitted: _
Personal/Group Work Statement
We/I, the undersigned:
warrant that the work submitted herein is our/my work and not
AP/ADMS 3300 A and B
Decision Analysis Fall 2009
ASSIGNMENT # 2
Rules:
1.
2.
3.
All calculations are to be completed to the 4 decimal place, unless told
otherwise. Show your Work.
Must use provided cover page. (page 2 of this document). All group
members
Module 6 Modeling Uncertainty
Ch 7 Probability Basics
I assume that you all have a basic understanding of Chapter 7
Probability Basics. Mostly, I would need you to refresh yourself
about general meanings of discrete and continuous probability
distributio
Solution to Home Work 5 Remaining problems
12.6. a. Of course, different people will have different feelings on this one. Personally, I would prefer that
the doctor wait to inform me until after the other tests have been performed. (This may not be possib
Ch 16 - Conflicting Objectives
and Additive Utility Function
n
Methods to deal with multiple conflicting objectives.
q
n
Additive preference model
q
n
Decide how best to trade off increased value on one
objective for lower value on another.
Weighted sum o
Lecture 3
Ch 4 - Making Decisions Objectives
Suggested Problems
A decision tree, a structured problem, presents
many alternatives. Which alternative is the
best?
Learn how to use the details in a structured
problem to find a preferred alternative.
Page 15
Ch 14 Risk Attitudes
n
n
The risk and return trade-offs?
How to model a decision makers preferences?
q
Basing decision on expected monetary values (EMVs)
is convenient, but it can lead to decisions that may not
seem intuitively appealing.
Game 1 Win $30 w
AP/ADMS 3300 A and B Decision Analysis Winter 2011 ASSIGNMENT # 2 Rules:
1. 2. 3. All calculations are to be completed as specified in each question. Show your Work. Must use provided cover page. (page 2 of this document). All group members must sign the
Solutions to Suggested Problems from Chapter 16
16.6. a. The assessments indicate that kX = 0.48 and kY = 0.67. The two-attribute utility
function is U(x, y) = 0.48UX(x) + 0.67UY(y) - 0.15UX(x)UY(y).
b. The two attributes would appear to be substitutes. T
Ch 13 Risk Attitudes
The risk and return trade-offs?
How to model a decision makers preferences?
Using Utilities to Model Risk Attitudes
Risk Averse, Risk Lover, Risk Neutral
Expected Utility, Certainty Equivalents and Risk Premiums
Utility Function Asses
1
AP/ADMS 3300 M
Decision Analysis Winter 2010
ASSIGNMENT # 1
Rules:
1.
2.
3.
4.
All calculations are to be completed to the 4 decimal place, unless told
otherwise. Show your Work.
Must use provided cover page. (page 2 of this document). All group
members
AP/ADMS 3300 A and B
Decision Analysis Fall 2009
ASSIGNMENT # 1
Rules:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
All calculations are to be completed to the 4 decimal place, unless told
otherwise. Show your Work.
Must use provided cover page. (page 2 of this document). All group
AP/ADMS 3330
Fall 2010
Assignment #1
Section D Due 4:00 pm on Tuesday, 23 November 2010
Section E Due 4:00 pm on Wednesday, 24 November 2010
You may only submit in your own section.
Assignment Instructions (please read carefully)
1. While we encourage stu
Solutions to Suggested Problems from Chapter 2
( Please compare your solutions with these, and feel free to ask me any questions you may have, )
2.1. a.
Some objectives might be to minimize cost, maximize safety, maximize comfort, maximize reliability,
ma
Solutions to Suggested Problems (and a few extra solutions to some questions) from
Chapter 3
(please compare your solutions with theses and feel free to ask the questions you may have!)
3.4. It is reasonable in this situation to assume that the banks obje
Question 1
Let
Evil Stats
1 = San Diego
2 = Houston
3 = Tulsa
4 = St. Louis
5 = Portland
6 = Seattle
7 = Denver
8 = Kansas City
Let
Pij = the number of panels shipped from source i to destination j
Bi = 1 if plant i is built, = 0 otherwise (i = 3, 4, 5)
M
Solutions to Suggested Problems from Ch 16
16.6. a. The assessments indicate that kX = 0.48 and kY = 0.67. The two-attribute utility function is U(x, y)
= 0.48UX(x) + 0.67UY(y) - 0.15UX(x)UY(y).
b. The two attributes would appear to be substitutes. That i
Who am I?
Dr. Mustafa Karakul, Associate Professor of Management Science
AK/ADMS 3300 Decision Analysis
PhD in Operations Management, UofT, Rotman School of Management
BSc and MSc in Industrial Engineering, Bilkent University, Ankara, TR
Teaching at Atkin
Probability: A Subjective Interpretation
Module 5 - Ch 8 Subjective Probability - Outline
Subjective Probability. What is it? Why do we need it?
Assessing Subjective Probabilities
n
n
q
Assessing Discrete Probabilities
n
n
n
q
n
q
q
n
q
q
Using Continuous
Solutions to Suggested Problems and More Ch 8
(Please do these questions and ask me the questions you may have!)
8.6. Your assessments may vary considerably. However, you should be reasonable and indicate in some
way that some effort went into the assessm
Solutions to Suggested Problems (and then some) from Chapter 4
4.3. A variety of reasonable answers exist. For example, it could be argued that the least Liedtke should
accept is $4.63 billion, the expected value of his Counteroffer $5 billion alternative
Chapter 12
Making Hard Decisions
R. T. Clemen, T. Reilly
Value of Information
Draft: Version 1
Making Hard Decisions
R. T. Clemen, T. Reilly
Chapter 12 Value of Information
Lecture Notes by: J.R. van Dorp and T.A. Mazzuchi http:/www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr/
Solutions to Suggested Problems from Ch 16
16.6. a. The assessments indicate that kX = 0.48 and kY = 0.67. The two-attribute utility function is U(x, y)
= 0.48UX(x) + 0.67UY(y) - 0.15UX(x)UY(y).
b. The two attributes would appear to be substitutes. That i
QUESTION #1
PART A:
(a)
EMV (launch) =0.2385+0.5473+0.23 (-41) =$49.54M
EMV (not launch) =$29.5M
Since the EMV of launch the product is larger than the EMV of not launch it, therefore
the product should be launched.
(b)
EVwIF=0.2385+0.5473+0.2329.5=$65.75
Week 2 - Ch 3 Structuring Decisions
Summary
Having identified the elements of a Decision Problem,
how should one begin the modeling process?
Creating a decision model requires three fundamental
steps
1. Filter & operationalize the objectives
2. Structur
February 28, 2011
YORK UNIVERSITY
Department of Administrative Studies
APIADMS 3300.3.0 M Decision Analysis
Winter 2011 MlDTERM ANSWER BOOK
Time Allowed : 180 minutes
Dr. Mustafa Karakul
INSTRUCTIONS:
1.
2.
This is a closed book examination. (No F
ADMS 3300
Practice Problems from Chapter 4
Practice Question
(a) Assuming that the decision maker is risk neutral, solve the above decision tree and state the
optimal strategy for minimizing cost. (Number your nodes and Show all your EMV calculations)
(b)
YORK UNIVERSITY
School of Administrative Studies
Winter 2017, AP/ADMS 3300 3.0, Decision Analysis
Section M, Tuesdays 4:00 - 7:00pm, ACE 013
Section N, Tuesdays 7:00 - 10:00pm, SLH B
Course Director: Dr. Mustafa Karakul
Office: Atkinson Bldg. 2nd Fl. 260A
Mini case Solution Midterm 1 - Summer 2016
Journal Entries
Date
Transaction
Journal entry
1-May Do nothing
Transfer $ into new chequng account to start
2-May business
Dr. Cash 10,000
Cr. Owner's equity 10,000
Purchase easel
Dr. Easel $600
Cr. Cash $600
Pu